Tweetus – Need to get pysched up for today’s match-up against Texas Southern?
In case you didn’t know, Ja’Rob McCallum operates with the nickname Simo Häyhä. What in the name of umlauts does that mean? I don’t know, but let’s hope he can get some consistency scoring behind the name change. Apparently Meta World Peace was taken.
Significant numbers – Today I’m going to introduce you all to the statistic we know as “Offensive Rating,” or a smarter version of the plus-minus and Gonzaga ratings. It’s an attempt to determine how important a player is to their team on the court.
Now, if you are unaware, the Plus-Minus rating is where you document the score as players come in and out of the game. This way, you can determine which combinations of five players do the best. Also, in a smaller way, you see which players are on the court when the team does well; since an individual player is not always on the court with the same four teammates every time, you see separation in the plus-minus and therefore may be able to determine which players are better.
The Offensive Rating takes this further. The actual equation is “Offensive Rating = Individual points produced / individual possessions.” However, knowing that both of those terms are foreign to most of our readers, we’ll dive in to each and then explain.
Individual points produced are the amount of points that an individual player is accountable for. This includes the obvious made field goals and made free throws, but also includes points scored where the player plays an integral role in the points being scored. This includes assists, which are tallied when points are scored and likely would not have been without the pass from the assist man, as well as offensive rebounds that lead to a score. These are all important because the fact is that the player who scored the basket on the possession would likely not have done so without the help of the player who tallied those statistics.
The second part of this is individual possessions. It’s very easy. The amount of individual possessions is tallied by the amount of times the player is on the court when his team’s possession is ended by a made basket, turnover, or opponent defensive rebound.
So, when you take the individual points produced and divide it by the individual’s possessions, that’s where you get the Offensive Rating. It is not entirely accurate. It doesn’t take into account the possessions ended by players other than the subject. So, when Kaylon Williams threw the ball way over Ryan Allen’s head on Friday, that possession counts for Kyle Kelm even though he did not have a direct or indirect play on the ball.
Even so, I believe it’s a better gauge of a player’s offensive ability and should be taken into account when choosing a line-up.
On the Panthers, no player has a better Offensive Rating than Mitch Roelke. This has a lot to do with his two three-pointers against SMSU, but even more so to do with the lack of possessions he accumulated so far this season.
The score is a percentage. So, if a player is on the court for one possession and scores one free throw before coming out of the game, his Offensive Rating is 100. It’s the break-even mark and the number that is standard; in other words, if you play a bunch of minutes and you are higher than 100, you are doing a really, really good job. Taking Mitch Roelke out, here are the players in the rotation and their Offensive Ratings:
Don’t be alarmed by seeing Kaylon Williams so far down the list. Williams plays in so many possessions and has a hand in so many scoring opportunities that it’s almost impossible for him to get a high rating. Basically, you have to be extremely efficient when you are on the floor. That’s why Ryan Haggerty, who does not play many minutes, is so high on the list – when he’s on the court, he makes the best of it.
I leave you with this, our current leader in Offensive Rating in the post:
Filed under: Milwaukee, Previews, TweetusOfTheWeek | Tagged: basketball on paper, basketball sabremetrics, bob brainerd, College Basketball, James Haarsma, Milwaukee, Milwaukee Panthers, offensive rating, points produced, possession percentage, Statsheet, UW-Milwaukee, UWM | 1 Comment »