Badgers game brings rare heavyweight bout #BeatUW

For the first time in four years and only the fourth time since Milwaukee went D-I in 1990, the Wisconsin Badgers will be making the trip to Brew City to take on the Milwaukee Panthers.  The Badgers are 8-2, identical to the Panthers, but their resume is far more impressive.

While other Badgers get more pub, Ryan Evans is quietly a driving force behind Bucky's success.

Wisconsin boasts three guards – Jordan Taylor, Josh Gasser, and Ben Brust – that can beat you by themselves.  Taylor is a pre-season All-American who runs the point and can do it all for the Badgers.  While an ankle injury has slowed him down somewhat, he still can get the ball to Wisconsin’s scorers, giving UW a dangerous point man to run the show.

Josh Gasser was recruited heavily by the Milwaukee coaching staff that tried to import the entire Swing AAU club – Gasser, Kyle Kelm, Evan Richard, Chip Rank, and Marquis Mason – but failed to do so.  Gasser is the point guard of the future, but right now is content with filling up buckets and playing the glue man when Taylor is on point.

Kaylon Williams needs to control the game the way he can.

Receiving a player that had committed to Iowa didn’t make a lot of headlines, but Ben Brust has proven that he is capable of being a big time scorer that the Badgers have lacked for quite some time.  Brust is a streak shooter who occasionally catches lightning in a bottle and beats teams by himself.  He scored 21 against BYU and 27 against UNLV in two games that proved you can’t leave him open on the arc (he was a combined 14-for-17 from three in the two games) under any circumstances.  Outside of those two games, his effectiveness has been limited to low-majors (Kennesaw State, Colgate, UMKC) but he is still a dangerous shooter.

The big problem for Milwaukee could come on the front line, however.  Kyle Kelm and James Haarsma had difficulty with UNI’s large front line, and the Badgers’ version is only better.  Jared Berggren is the kind of center that doesn’t make mistakes and scores at a decent clip.  Berggren may not be the big time banger on the glass, but usually he doesn’t have to be as the Badgers are a solid shooting team.

Ryan Evans could be the game changer for the Badgers tomorrow night.  At 6’6”, Evans is tall enough to give guys like Paris Gulley fits trying to guard his size, but he’s also quick enough to get by Tony Meier or Kyle Kelm.  He’s a good shooter inside the arc and, like Ricky Franklin or Kaylon Williams, has a nose for rebounds and wins rebounding battles against taller forwards.

Defense is how Milwaukee will send Bucky home whimpering.

In the end, though, it all comes down to Bo Ryan.  The coach turned Wisconsin basketball from barely-high-major to full-on power program in a short space of time.  Bo’s tenure at Milwaukee was short but helped our program springboard into our first real national success, and all that is due to his coaching and recruiting ability.  While Ryan doesn’t tend to get many top-50 recruits, he does pick up a lot of players that do two things – shoot the ball well from anywhere on the floor at any size, and take care of the basketball.

The Badgers’ vaunted Swing offense has built them into a team that can beat just about anyone.  The Kohl Center has become part of that identity too, a death trap for opposing programs.

But we’ve got some things that ‘ol Bucky may not be counting on.  The Arena is no easy court to win in, especially when the place is full as it looks to be close to tomorrow.  A high number of tickets have been sold to Panther fans, who are starting to come out of the woodwork with Milwaukee’s excellent start to the season.  The Panthers also have built an identity on defense.  Now, that identity may have been shaken by the events of last week, but the Badgers will not run the ball like DePaul and Milwaukee will not break down right after it did so at UNI.

Milwaukee can guard any team in the country, they just need to dig, to never stop digging in.  The Panthers have legitimate three-point threats at every position on the floor, and if they close out on the arc they’ll be able to give Bucky fits all day.

This is the most important part.  One of Wisconsin’s greatest strengths is that they do not make mistakes, and they sit and bide their time and wait for you to make yours.  Once the mistakes happen, the Badgers grab hold of it and never let go.

It is very important that Kaylon Williams understands this last part.  At UNI, in front of dozens of family and friends from Cedar Rapids, Williams forced himself into trying to impress them and do everything for the Panthers.  This led to a lot of mistakes (seven turnovers in the box score, could have easily been nine) that UNI capitalized on and blew the game open.

Williams shot the ball well and found open players on the court, but he needs to settle down against Wisconsin and not let what they do fluster him on the court. Slow down, control the game, and good things will happen.  Always, always, always take care of the ball, and Milwaukee will come out on top.

This is your opportunity, Milwaukee, to show the country that this is a program to be reckoned with.

TROUNCE ‘EM POUNCE

Defense quickly becoming Milwaukee’s identity

Bo Ryan runs the swing.  Bruce Pearl’s team presses the hell out of you.  John Calipari runs an NBA roster and somehow remains under the salary cap.

Yet until this season, Rob Jeter’s Milwaukee Panthers have struggled to really find an identity.

Ryan Allen and Kaylon Williams defended well last year on the perimeter. Having Paris Gulley to help in 2011-12 has brought great results.

This has always been a team that rebounds well, but that’s not an identity.  Perhaps the poor free throw shooting has been the Panthers’ identity, but I don’t think anyone wants to own up to that one.  So what kind of team are we?  We don’t run the swing, more of a swing/dribble drive hybrid that looks great in Kaylon Williams’ hands and no one else’s.

Looking over the box scores of the season and watching the team play has led me to a conclusion, that this year the Panthers actually have found an identity.

Defense.

Man-up, smack you around, in your face defense.  This is the kind of identity that I’ve longed for, and the 6-1 start is due to this newfound interest in defense.

With Kaylon Williams, Ryan Allen, and Paris Gulley on the court, there is no team in the country that Milwaukee cannot defend.  These three are the kind of lock down defenders that coaches drool over; Ryan Allen spent much of last season playing minutes despite so-so offense because he was a dynamite defender; it looks like Paris Gulley is going to be the same player this season, as he played 18 minutes tonight despite having a poor offensive night.

Over the offseason, Ryan Allen worked on his offensive game to the point where not only is he no longer a liability on the offensive end, but he’s a boon for the team’s scoring chances.  How does this help Milwaukee’s defense? Well, to put it simply, Allen is on the court a whole lot more.  Ja’Rob McCallum spent the summer doing the opposite, and bulked up and built enough lateral quickness to no longer be a tremendous liability on the defensive end.  While McCallum and freshman Evan Richard are not on the level of the other three guards, they are not bad defenders and get better with more game experience.

Ryan Allen has become one of the premier defenders in the Horizon League along with CSU's D'Aundray Brown and Butler's Ronald Nored.

The Panthers showed the speed and toughness to run with Michigan State for 38 minutes last week, getting back in transition D and limiting second-chance opportunities by racking up defensive rebounds.

In the post, Kyle Kelm and James Haarsma had trouble with help defense and defending layups against Southwest Minnesota State; they have not had that trouble since, and while Haarsma has been consistently great on defense, Kelm has only gotten better and better every game.

Off the bench, Ryan Haggerty is one of the best post defenders in the conference.  While he doesn’t have much of an offensive game in comparison to Kelm, Haarsma and Tony Meier, Haggerty more than measures up by having a strong nose for the ball, playing exceptional help defense, blocking shots like a machine, and playing with a high motor.

Ryan Haggerty may not play 25 minutes a game, but he is an exceptional post defender.

We can trace this newfound love of defense back to the Northern Illinois game.  With Williams in the lineup for the first time, the Panthers won the game by forcing the Huskies to shoot only 37% and give up 23 turnovers.  Since then, the only team to sniff 60 points on Milwaukee was Michigan State, whose nine point run to begin the second half left 61 points the rest of the game.

The Panthers’ opponent field goal percentage (37.1) ranks number one in the Horizon League.  Milwaukee also leads in opponent efficient field goal percentage (40.1%) and, most importantly, is only giving up 53.1 points per game, first in the Horizon League and eighth nationally.

Here is a short table showing defensive numbers and how Milwaukee stacks up nationally:

Opponent Statistics	Numbers	Conference rank	National rank
Points per game	53.1	1	8
Field Goal%	37.1	1	28
Effective Field Goal%	40.1	1	14
3PT Field Goal%	22.8	2	6
Steals per game	5.7	2	77

So, as you can see, the Panthers have found their identity – lock down defense.  It has become something the Panthers have done very well all season, and the team’s record shows that this is the difference-maker that coach Rob Jeter has looked for over his head coaching career.

With new emphasis on defense, Milwaukee is finally moving up into the echelon where their fans can expect tough defense and a shot to win every game.

Texas Southern: A Closer Look

Hidden in the beastly effort over Texas Southern yesterday are statistics that are not found in the box score.  This year, we’ve shown you the Offensive Rating as well as the Free Throw Rate for the team.  Today, we’ll be including a few other stats and providing the numbers for every player in the rotation from last night’s game.

After struggling with his shot the first few games, Ja'Rob McCallum turned it on.

The Plus-minus rating is something that people are familiar with.  Basically, by documenting the score every time a player comes in and out of the game, you can find out how much better the Panthers do in scoring against their opponents when certain players are on the court.  It doesn’t favor guards or forwards, but typically favors the players who are on the court when the team makes a run, obviously.  If Kaylon starts the game and leaves when Milwaukee is up 25-2 and never comes back, Kaylon’s plus-minus is 23.  If Ryan Haggerty enters the game at 38-13 and leaves at 45-23, Ryan’s plus-minus rating is -3.  This continues all game and the totals are put together afterwards.

Once we have the Plus-Minus rating for individual players, you can find their Roland Rating.  The Roland Rating is a simple measurement that simply shows how the team did when the player was on the court and when the player was off the court.  For yesterday’s game, the players who were on the court during the big runs – read, starters – will have a much better rating than the players who came on the court after the big runs were over.  So while Shaq Boga has a Roland Rating of -26, the team still gained 9 points on the Tigers while he was on the court.

The final new statistic I’ll be adding in today is the Effective Field Goal Percentage.  While the eFG% is much the same as the normal field goal percentage, it comes with a tweak.  Three-pointers made are counted as 1.5 times the normal two-point field goal, because after all that’s how they’re counted in the game.  The three-point field goal is more difficult to achieve than the two-point field goal, so this equation rewards shooting guards who otherwise almost always end up with lower field goal percentages than their post counterparts.  While none of these numbers – as well as the Offensive Rating that we brought to you yesterday – are perfect, together they give the analyst a strong base on which to judge a player’s performance.

The leaders in each category are bold (minimum 3 shots to lead FG).

Player	Offensive Rating	Plus/Minus	Roland Rating	Effective Field Goal %
Kaylon Williams	140.2	30	25	77.7
Kyle Kelm	71.4	32	29	40
Ja’Rob McCallum	191.5	22	9	85.7
James Haarsma	124.4	28	21	40
Ryan Allen	180	23	11	66.6
Paris Gulley	144.2	6	-23	42.8
Shaquille Boga	85.1	9	-26	20
Demetrius Harris	137	7	-21	50
Evan Richard	115.3	4	-27	25
Ryan Haggerty	103.6	-4	-43	100

Tweetus and Offensive Rating

Tweetus – Need to get pysched up for today’s match-up against Texas Southern?

In case you didn’t know, Ja’Rob McCallum operates with the nickname Simo Häyhä.  What in the name of umlauts does that mean?  I don’t know, but let’s hope he can get some consistency scoring behind the name change.  Apparently Meta World Peace was taken.

Significant numbers – Today I’m going to introduce you all to the statistic we know as “Offensive Rating,” or a smarter version of the plus-minus and Gonzaga ratings.  It’s an attempt to determine how important a player is to their team on the court.

Now, if you are unaware, the Plus-Minus rating is where you document the score as players come in and out of the game.  This way, you can determine which combinations of five players do the best.  Also, in a smaller way, you see which players are on the court when the team does well; since an individual player is not always on the court with the same four teammates every time, you see separation in the plus-minus and therefore may be able to determine which players are better.

The Offensive Rating takes this further.  The actual equation is “Offensive Rating = Individual points produced / individual possessions.”  However, knowing that both of those terms are foreign to most of our readers, we’ll dive in to each and then explain.

Individual points produced are the amount of points that an individual player is accountable for.  This includes the obvious made field goals and made free throws, but also includes points scored where the player plays an integral role in the points being scored.  This includes assists, which are tallied when points are scored and likely would not have been without the pass from the assist man, as well as offensive rebounds that lead to a score.  These are all important because the fact is that the player who scored the basket on the possession would likely not have done so without the help of the player who tallied those statistics.

Efficient.

The second part of this is individual possessions.  It’s very easy.  The amount of individual possessions is tallied by the amount of times the player is on the court when his team’s possession is ended by a made basket, turnover, or opponent defensive rebound.

So, when you take the individual points produced and divide it by the individual’s possessions, that’s where you get the Offensive Rating.  It is not entirely accurate.  It doesn’t take into account the possessions ended by players other than the subject.  So, when Kaylon Williams threw the ball way over Ryan Allen’s head on Friday, that possession counts for Kyle Kelm even though he did not have a direct or indirect play on the ball.

Even so, I believe it’s a better gauge of a player’s offensive ability and should be taken into account when choosing a line-up.

On the Panthers, no player has a better Offensive Rating than Mitch Roelke.  This has a lot to do with his two three-pointers against SMSU, but even more so to do with the lack of possessions he accumulated so far this season.

The score is a percentage.  So, if a player is on the court for one possession and scores one free throw before coming out of the game, his Offensive Rating is 100.  It’s the break-even mark and the number that is standard; in other words, if you play a bunch of minutes and you are higher than 100, you are doing a really, really good job.  Taking Mitch Roelke out, here are the players in the rotation and their Offensive Ratings:

Player	Offensive Rating
Ryan Allen	120.1
James Haarsma	115.8
Evan Richard	107.7
Ja’Rob McCallum	97.9
Ryan Haggerty	96.4
Paris Gulley	92.5
Kyle Kelm	91.1
Kaylon Williams	75.4
Demetrius Harris	39.1

Don’t be alarmed by seeing Kaylon Williams so far down the list.  Williams plays in so many possessions and has a hand in so many scoring opportunities that it’s almost impossible for him to get a high rating.  Basically, you have to be extremely efficient when you are on the floor.  That’s why Ryan Haggerty, who does not play many minutes, is so high on the list – when he’s on the court, he makes the best of it.
I leave you with this, our current leader in Offensive Rating in the post:

Improve everyday – Texas Southern, 4 p.m. Sunday

As the Milwaukee Panthers wound down their time in the game against the IUPUI Jaguars, attention turned to Texas Southern, the next opponent to come through the Arena.  Milwaukee defeated IUPUI on Friday night to move to 3-0 on the season.

Texas Southern is 1-2 on the season, dropping their last game at Michigan State by 35 points on Friday.  The Tigers won their first game in the in-season tournament by dispatching Eastern Michigan 66-49 on Tuesday in their only home game thus far.

Ryan Allen will be key to slowing down Lawrence Johnson-Danner.

The Tigers are led in scoring by Lawrence Johnson-Danner, who is scoring 15 points per game and is shooting 47.8% from the floor.  Johnson-Danner also leads the Tigers in assists at 3.5 apg.  Omar Strong, who is scoring 13.6 points per game, is their second scoring option.  Strong has scored in double figures in each of the Tigers’ three games this season.

Texas Southern is 336th in the nation in rebounding this season, pulling in only 26.5 rpg.  However, the Tigers low rebounding totals can come from the efficiency on the offensive end; TSU is shooting 48.9% on the season, good for 73rd in the nation.

On the defensive end, the Tigers confuse opponents by throwing a number of looks on them.  They play the press often, using an 11-man rotation to keep the defense rested.  The Tigers also throw a lot of zone looks at opposing teams, switching frequently to achieve that confusion.

The efficient shooting of LJD and the other Tigers will be a stiff test for Milwaukee’s stout defense.  Since returning Kaylon Williams from the one-game suspension and moving Paris Gulley back to his normal position of shooting guard, the Panthers have given up 57 and 49 points in two games based on a wicked perimeter defense from Williams, Gulley and Ryan Allen.

Game time is 4 p.m., leaving Packer fans a lot of time to get to the arena once the Pack has the game in hand against Tampa Bay.

Lonnie Boga confirmed to PantherU on Friday night that he will be in uniform and ready to return to action against Texas Southern.