Horizon League Power Rankings (January 4-10)

The Horizon League dropped again to 11th in Conference RPI this week.

There’s no doubt the Horizon League is as good talent-wise as it’s ever been, and this past week, we saw that in the results.

In descending order…

10. UIC (Overall Record: 4-12, Conference Record: 0-5, RPI: 255)

Recent Results: Lost to Wright State 71-63, Lost to Detroit 72-69

Five games into the conference schedule and UIC is winless.  When will their first win come?  Three upcoming road games make it seem likely it won’t be any time soon.  In new coach Howard Moore’s first year, the talent level just isn’t there yet.  There are pieces in place, however, that should give UIC fans some hope for the future.

Up Next: Thursday at Milwaukee (8-9)

9. Youngstown State (5-9, 1-5, 245)

Recent Results: Lost to Valparaiso 79-55, Lost to Butler 84-79

The Penguins were just a couple of possessions short of a major upset over Butler on Sunday.  While Youngstown State is clearly not the most talented team in the Horizon League, they obviously have enough to make any game interesting.  However, it will be tough sledding for them up until the end of January.

Up Next: Tuesday vs. Wilberforce

Coach Jim Whitesell desperately needs some Horizon League victories.

8. Loyola (10-7, 1-7, 197)

Recent Results: Lost to Detroit 83-71, Lost to Wright State 58-41

New year…Same results.  Loyola just can’t seem to replicate their non-conference success when the conference portion of the schedule comes around.  Much of this comes from the fact that the teams in the Horizon League are MUCH better than most of the teams they’re playing in the non-conference games.  Coach Jim Whitesell isn’t doing his Ramblers any favors by preparing them for a low-major conference schedule.  This is the Horizon League, not the MEAC!

Up Next: Thursday vs. Detroit (7-7)

7. Green Bay (7-9, 2-3, 166)

Recent Results: Beat Milwaukee 69-64

Beating in-state rival Milwaukee on their home floor is always a nice feeling for Green Bay, but the true test will be whether or not they can avoid a letdown against the two Chicago teams this week.  This part of the schedule provides the Phoenix with a nice opportunity to get some conference wins before heading to Indiana to take on Butler and Valpo.  Senior leaders Rahmon Fletcher and Bryquis Perine came up huge against Milwaukee.

Up Next: Thursday vs. Loyola (10-7)

6. Milwaukee (8-9, 3-3, 135)

Recent Results: Lost to Green Bay 69-64

Much like Green Bay, the Panthers will host the two Chicago teams this week and look to pad the conference record before traveling to Indiana.  Losing to rival Green Bay was a bit of a disappointment for coach Rob Jeter’s team, but they’ll look ahead to UIC for what they hope will be a blowout win.  If they’re upset by the Flames, watch the Panthers slide back down this list…

Up Next: Thursday vs. UIC (4-12)

5. Detroit (9-7, 4-1, 155)

Recent Results: Beat Loyola 83-71, Beat UIC 72-69

The Titans did well to sweep the Chicago teams this week as it puts them atop the league in a tie for first place.   Unfortunately for Detroit, they’ll be without star big man Eli Holman as he was suspended for one game by the league for his involvement in a scuffle with UIC forward Brad Birton in their most recent game.  This is a huge blow for a team looking to shut down Matt Howard and Butler’s potent offense.

Up Next: Friday vs. Butler (11-5)+

N'Gai Evans is leading his team to the top of the Horizon League.

4. Wright State (9-6, 4-1, 145)

Recent Results: Beat UIC 71-63, Beat Loyola 58-41

Who’s the hottest team in the Horizon League?  That’s right… It’s the Wright State Raiders who’ve won 7 of their last 8 games.  The Raiders will get a major test this week though as they host both Valpo and Butler.  Can N’Gai Evans continue his outstanding point guard play and push Wright State ahead of Valpo on this list?  We’ll find out Friday…

Up Next: Friday vs. Valparaiso (10-5)

3. Valparaiso (10-5, 4-1, 58)

Recent Results: Beat Youngstown State 79-55, Beat Cleveland State 64-58

The Crusaders are rolling.   They took care of business at home against Cleveland State to keep them tied atop the Horizon League.  Senior guard Howard Little is doing much of the dirty work, and coach Homer Drew has a good thing going.  The key will be if they can at least split in their four games against Butler and Cleveland State.   So far, so good…

Up Next: Friday at Wright State (9-6)

2. Cleveland State (13-3, 4-2, 30)

Recent Results: Lost to Butler 79-56, Lost to Valparaiso 64-58

This is not what the Vikings had hoped for.  In what they knew would be a tough week, they wanted to prove their mettle traveling to Indiana to take on their two biggest challengers in the Horizon League race this year.  Fortunately they’ll have a chance at redemption in about a month, but until then, the Penguins await.

Up Next: Saturday at Youngstown State (5-9)

1. Butler (11-5, 4-1, 26)

Recent Results: Beat Cleveland State 79-56, Beat Youngstown State 84-79

Butler is a vulnerable team this year, and there’s certainly no guarantee they’ll win the conference.  Beating Cleveland State put them in the right direction, but they’ll need to continue to take care of business against 4-1 Detroit.  At this point, it would be hard to put the Bulldogs in the tournament should they lose in the HL tournament.  They’ll need to avoid more performances like those against Milwaukee and Youngstown State.

Up Next: Friday at Detroit (9-7)

Scheduling takes flight

Flenard Whitfield and the Western Michigan Broncos come to the Klotsche Center for the 2010 Throwback game

Over the past few years, schools in the Horizon League have bolstered the conference’s reputation nationally, mainly based on performance in the NCAA Tournament.  However, the conference’s RPI seems stuck outside the top 10, which is the barometer the big boys in BCS auto-bid conferences use to determine if other conferences are worthy of their attention.

How do we do it?  Getting better is just part of it.  There are two things that have needed to change: teams need to schedule tougher, and they need to win those tougher games.  The fact is, when you lose to tougher teams, your RPI and reputation don’t get hurt as badly as if you lost to St. Francis (it doesn’t matter which one, Youngstown).  If you win those games, that’s when you start boosting your RPI big time, which in turn leads to multiple bids for the conference, which leads to more Cleveland State over Wake Forests and Milwaukee over Oklahomas.

Most Horizon League schools, sadly, don’t get this.  Until this year, thankfully, I had to count Milwaukee among those who schedule D-II regular season games, low-majors in home-and-homes, and the ridiculous 4-for-1, of which we essentially have two.  This season, however, we’ve turned it around.  You know who has had their act together the whole time?  Wright State.

Billy Donlon's Raiders put together a great schedule for 2010-11.

There’s no coincidence that Wright State, despite being a bad rebounding team, has finished as high as they have for many years.  It’s because they test themselves in the non-conference season.  Today in the Pro-Am, Ricky Franklin looked as though his last game against Butler was five years ago.  Why?  Because he’s been playing with NBA talent all summer, and that in turn picked his game up tremendously.  Wright State understands this, and they do not shy away from scheduling difficult games with both high-majors and mid-majors.

Kyle Nagel of the Dayton Daily News (where’s Marc Katz?) wrote an article in today’s paper discussing the Raiders’ non-conference schedule.  Plainly put, it’s excellent.  There’s a hefty amount of tests, a couple easy wins and one potential blowout.  Of the seven games, they have eight potential opponents.  I’ll be breaking them down Cold Stone style:

Like it: Southern, Air Force, Southern Illinois.  With SU, the Raiders get an easy home win to kick off the season.  Air Force is a name school, but one Wright State will easily beat.  Southern Illinois will prove to be a more difficult game, but like Air Force is a name everybody knows; my favorite College Gameday was at SIU.

Love it: Purdue, Oakland, Charlotte.  It’s not just about getting a test, but a test you can win.  Wright State can absolutely beat Purdue, and I hope they get the opportunity, but the possibility of our reigning #2 walking out of Chicago with a 20+ point drubbing is definitely there.  Oakland is just a great game.  With their center back in the fold after testing NBA waters, the Raiders will get a great test game for their run-ins with big front lines at Milwaukee, Loyola and Detroit.  Charlotte is an awesome program with a recognizable name (hint, those of you who prefer UW-Milwaukee, Charlotte is a big name, UNC-Charlotte is not) that fans at the Nutter will enjoy.

Gotta Have It: Richmond, Cincinnati.  What’s not to love about Richmond?  They’re an A-10 program oozing with history, a program that people across the country recognize, and they flat-out win.  After Purdue, this is most likely their toughest game (although Oakland will be damn good), but Richmond is beatable, especially if the Raiders get off to one of their signature bucket-is-an-ocean shooting binges.  Cincinnati is even more so an AWESOME game for the Raiders.  Not only is this a winnable game, but it’s a BCS school in their home state, a 2-for-1 series with a power conference school that doesn’t fill their arena just an hour down the road.  Pack the house in Cincinnati, Raiders.  Pack the house.  A Nut away from Nut, perhaps.

When it all comes down to it, Wright State’s schedule as it stands is the perfect mix of easy games, road tests and difficult-but-winnable contests.

Brandon Wood and the Crusaders got smothered at the Breslin.

We have schools that are scheduling too difficult for their own good.  What does Valpo get out of games with Purdue, Michigan State, and North Carolina?  Sure, the UNC game was ONLY an 11-point loss, but getting drubbed in the other games did not help them prepare for Horizon League competition.  Those games were just lessons in how to lose confidence.

Loyola, on the other hand, is a school that schedules too easy to get anything good out of it.  The school needs real tests, and there are always too few of them on the schedule to get real experience for their players.  Look, Loyola isn’t going to get better by scheduling an easy non-conference docket.  The Ramblers started the season 9-1 in non-conference play.  This was the best record of all Horizon League teams in the non-conference season.  The Ramblers went on to win 5 conference games and finish 8th.  How’d they do it?  Weak scheduling.  Sure, Kansas State is a great team.  But like Valpo, they got their teeth kicked in and got nothing out of the experience.  Bradley and Western Michigan were the only other two teams sniffing the top 150 in RPI, with the Braves at 100 and WMU at 151.

The Rambler plays UT-Pan American twice this year. Yup.

Both were excellent games, and guess what: both were followed by blowout victories.  Loyola has got to realize that in the future, games like their current one season home-and-home with UT-Pan American do the team exactly zero favors.  Fans don’t want to see the game at the Genital, the RPI doesn’t get help even with a blowout victory, and no respect can be gained by beating them.  The fact is that teams that get tested get better; schoolchildren aren’t just given tests to see how their teachers are doing, the tests are designed to help them get better.  And the non-conference schedule is the same for college basketball programs.  Test your team, and they get better.  Let them skip class, their grades will suffer.

So there are opposite ends of the spectrum that don’t truly work for the Horizon League; Valpo’s drubbings don’t help, and Loyola’s low-major and D-II wins don’t do them any favors.

I guess what I’m trying to say is this: take a leaf out of Wright State’s book and learn how to schedule, people!