What the Panthers lack without #21

This much we knows is true: despite beginning the season 2-0, no one in the Milwaukee Panthers fan base has been pleased with how the two games have gone.

Southwest Minnesota State was playing the game at the end like they had a chance to win, because they did.  Northern Illinois almost clanked in a game-winner at the buzzer.  This is a team that lost first-team All-Conference player Anthony Hill and volume shooter Tone Boyle.  But what else is the team missing?

Tony Meier's absence has been notable. But what is it that makes him so important?

Tony Meier.  And everyone knows it.  But why is it that Tony Meier’s absence has the rest of the team in such a funk?

The fact of the matter is that without Tony Meier, the Panthers don’t have a lot of room with which to work.

Milwaukee’s offense is predicated very much on spacing.  Tony Meier’s role, whether the inside presence is Anthony Hill or James Haarsma and the point guard is Ricky Franklin or Kaylon Williams, is to provide spacing.  Yes, he’s there to score points. Yes, he’s there to draw fouls and take advantage of his great free-throw shooting.  But what makes Meier so effective, and the Panthers as a team, is the spacing they can achieve.

Spacing is all about spreading out a defense.  In the first couple games without Tony Meier, the Panthers have lost much of their ability to get spacing.  Take the starting lineup from tonight’s Northern Illinois game for example.  Ryan Allen and Ja’Rob McCallum start as the 2 and 3 on the wing, Kaylon Williams runs the point, and James Haarsma is the 5.  Without Tony Meier in the game, it is up to Kyle Kelm to run the 4 spot, with help from Ryan Haggerty and Demetrius Harris, depending on the personnel on the court.

Ja'Rob McCallum's newfound strength will help him drive the lane. But what if there's no lane to drive?

Kelm is a good player, and he’s going to be great down the road.  But Kelm has yet to show in college that he is a force to be reckoned with from the outside.  Because of their height, both Kelm and Meier have jump shots that are practically unblockable.  What a player like Evan Richard achieves with amazing jumping ability, they achieve just by being really tall.  Meier’s shooting, of course, has been far more consistent and effective – this is mainly because he has two years of experience on Kelm, but the fact remains that when he gets the outside shots, whether they be from two or three, he knocks them down.

This causes several things to happen.  First, and most important, Meier’s shooting ability from the outside forces the opposing defense to guard him when he’s out there.  Because they have to do that, they are not able to sag their four defender into the post and double-team the five.  In case you haven’t noticed, James Haarsma has been living with people on his back the first two games of the season.  These double teams are why.

Not only does the 5 find himself in a precarious position offensively, but that sagging 4 defender is also in place to cut off driving lanes for Milwaukee guards.  Ja’Rob McCallum’s newfound leg and arm strength led him to drive the lane at will against Parkside in exhibition, but against regular season opponents he isn’t finding the space to make that happen.  The same goes for Ryan Allen and Evan Richard.  While McCallum and Richard have the jump shots to step back and pop, Allen is still improving in that area and could be scoring more if Meier were in the lineup.

Speaking of McCallum and Richard stepping back and taking outside shots, the lack of an effective outside shooter at the four means that there are more outside shots.  I realize that sounds confusing, but having a post player who can also shoot well from the outside forces the defense to commit help out to him, which in turn opens up the driving lanes and closer shots.

There is one simple truth about basketball.  The closer you get to the rim, the higher shooting percentage you make.  So while it’s good to have Meier outside shooting threes, it’s better to have Anthony Hill inside pounding the glass.  Eight times out of ten you’re going to end up with the inside player scoring more.

Anthony Hill was very effective in the post, but how would he have done if he had the constant double-team that James Haarsma is facing this season?

This is the foundation of Milwaukee’s championship team.  For the first time in Jeter’s tenure, the Panthers not only found themselves above the cellar in shooting, but in the top half of the conference.  This came largely from Anthony Hill’s high shooting percentage, which existed because Anthony Hill spent his senior year camped out underneath the basket.

Without Meier on the court, Haarsma is getting double-teamed, finding the offensive glass much more crowded, and the team as a whole is finding their driving lanes cut off far more often than they would if Meier were on the court.

Meier is a decent post player, but his outside shooting makes him a many-headed monster and a scary player to guard.  That makes it impossible for opponents to leave him open on the perimeter, because if they do he makes them pay.  And by bringing the defenders out to meet him, the Panthers find much more open lanes in which to drive.

To me, the answer is simple.  The team can either wait for Meier to heal, weather the stormy November and hope he comes back in December ready to go immediately, or they can find that #4 who can score on both the inside and outside.

Kyle Kelm is that guy.  He has a good outside shooting stroke, but he needs it to be more consistent if he’s going to help the team fix its major spacing issue.  This is why the SMSU game was so troubling; Kelm seemed more comfortable on the outside, yet he was almost forcing himself to play that four spot underneath as a prototypical power forward.

Kelm bulked up this offseason, this much is obvious.  His arms and legs are noticeably stronger, but that doesn’t mean he needs to camp out on the block like Ant Hill did.  On the contrary, it should only mean that when he is down low, he can use that extra strength to power through defenders.  It doesn’t mean he needs to spend any more time on the block.  If you are a perimeter-shooting power forward, by all means continue to be that player.  I don’t think anyone is arguing Steve Novak should have played more down low at Marquette.

Find the player who can draw opponents to the outside at the four position, and the Panthers will find the key they need to open up the offensive locked door.

Horizon League Power Rankings (February 22 – 28)

The Horizon League holds steady in the conference RPI ranks remaining ahead of the Missouri Valley Conference for 11^th this week.

In descending order…

10. UIC (Overall Record: 6-23, Conference Record: 2-16, RPI: 288)

Recent Results: Lost to Valparaiso 79-65

The season is drawing to a close for the Flames.  A couple bright lights on a dim season:  Senior F Paul Carter – Finished on the all-newcomer team averaging 14.6 points and 8 rebounds per game.  Senior G Robo Kreps – Would have received consideration for the all-conference third team (if one rightfully existed) averaging 16 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 2.9 assists per game.  Next year will be a fresh start for coach Howard Moore.  It’s time for Moore to put his stamp on this program.  Projected conference tournament finish: Lose in the first round; no postseason

Up Next: Tuesday at Cleveland State (22-7)

9. Youngstown State (7-20, 2-16, 291)

Recent Results: Lost to Green Bay 71-60, Lost to Milwaukee 94-87 (OT)

The Penguins came within inches of ruining Milwaukee’s season, but like so many games before, they came up just short.  Youngstown State finished with just one player receiving any conference accolades.  Sophomore F Damian Eargle – Averaging 11 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 3 blocks per game, Eargle had the best season of any Penguin and finished as a member of the all-newcomer team.  Eargle could have also made a strong case for the All-Defensive team.  Projected Finish: Lose in the first round; no postseason

Up Next: Tuesday at Valparaiso (19-10)

8. Loyola (16-14, 7-11, 195)

Recent Results: Beat Valparaiso 68-48, Lost to Butler 63-56

The Ramblers were able to squeak out one more conference win in a dismal conference season.   The Ramblers finished with one player in the conversation for any conference accolades.  Senior G Geoff McCammon – On his way to earning the Horizon League’s Sixth Man of the Year award, McCammon averaged 14.5 PPG and 3 RPG while averaging 43.2% from beyond the arc (and ironically leading the team with 30.9 minutes per game).   One could make the case that sophomore F Ben Averkamp was a third team performer.    Projected Finish: Lose in the first round; no postseason

Up Next: Tuesday at Detroit (15-15)

7. Green Bay (13-17, 8-10, 164)

Recent Results: Beat Youngstown State 71-60, Lost to Cleveland State 64-57

A big round of applause is deserved for senior G Rahmon Fletcher who ends his career as one of the greatest Phoenix of all time.  The diminutive point guard finished the year as a member of the all-conference second team averaging 16 PPG and 3 APG.  Fletcher should have a nice long career overseas.  Also finishing with postseason accolades is freshman C Alec Brown.  Named to the all-newcomer team, Brown finished the season with 10 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 2.1 BPG.  Projected Finish: Lose in the first round; no postseason

Up Next: Tuesday at Wright State (16-13)

6. Detroit (15-15, 10-8, 146)

Recent Results: Beat Wright State 77-67

A nice win to end an unsuccessful regular season for the Titans, but they’ll have a lot of work to do if they wish to reach the NCAA tournament.  Still, in all of their mediocrity, they pulled in a bunch of postseason awards.  Freshman G Ray McCallum Jr. was named the Newcomer of the Year in the Horizon League as well as to the all-newcomer team and all-conference second team.  It’s a pretty impressive haul, but it left some people wondering if it was well deserved, or if it was just a product of being a McDonald’s All-American.  Junior F/C Eli Holman also pulled in honors as a member of the all-conference second team and the all-defensive team.  Again, some question whether Holman was truly worthy of the second team.    Projected Finish: Lose in the second round; no postseason

Up Next: Tuesday vs. Loyola (16-14)

5. Wright State (16-13, 10-8, 128)

Recent Results: Lost to Cleveland State 74-72, Beat Hofstra 82-56

The Raiders slipped in their last game of the year and will now take on the Green Bay Phoenix in the first round.  One man that should will them to victory is first team all-conference senior G Vaughn Duggins.  Duggins truly had an outstanding season averaging 18 PPG and 3.8 RPG.  His backcourt mate N’Gai Evans earned second team all-conference with 14.2 PPG, 4 RPG, and 3.3 APG.    Projected Finish: Lose in the second round; no postseason

Up Next: Friday vs. Detroit (14-15)

4. Valparaiso (19-10, 12-6, 71)

Recent Results: Lost to Loyola 68-48, Beat UIC 79-65

Valpo faltered down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 4 and squandering an opportunity for a first round bye.  Still, the Crusaders had a successful season with Junior G Brandon Wood leading the way as a first-team all-conference player.   A case could have been made for Ryan Broekhoff to be included on the second-team, but he’d have to settle for consideration for the third-team.  The Crusaders would have had a much better season had Cory Johnson not regressed so much in his senior year.  Projected Finish: Lose in the Semifinals; CBI/CIT

Up Next: Tuesday vs. Youngstown State (7-20)

3. Cleveland State (22-7, 13-5, 37)

Recent Results: Lost to Milwaukee 87-83, Beat Green Bay 64-57

The Vikings blew a huge opportunity that now puts them behind the eight ball.  Losing to Milwaukee at home dropped them to third in the pecking order, and quite possibly ruined what was a fantastic season.  Senior G Norris Cole, who is a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award for the nation’s best point guard, is 2011’s Horizon League Player of the Year.  He also placed on the all-defensive team as the Defensive Player of the Year.  Clearly, Cole is a special player that should find a place on an NBA bench.  Also receiving postseason honors is junior G Trevon Harmon who is a member of the all-defensive team.  Projected Finish: Lose in the Semifinals; NIT

Up Next: Tuesday vs. UIC (6-23)

Matt Howard gave his blood, sweat, and tears to the Butler program. Bulldog fans should be proud.

2. Butler (20-9, 13-5, 45)

Recent Results: Beat Loyola 63-56

The Bulldogs didn’t quite finish where they hoped, but they still have a chance at accomplishing their goal of making it back to the NCAA tournament.  Outgoing senior F Matt Howard has had an outstanding career and caps it off as a member of the all-conference first team as well as the all-defensive team.  Congratulations to him on an outstanding career.  Also, Junior G Shelvin Mack finished on the second-team and Ronald Nored finished on the all-defensive team.  Projected Finish: Win the Horizon League Tournament; NCAA Tournament Auto Bid

Up Next: Saturday vs. UIC/Cleveland State/Green Bay/Wright State (at Milwaukee)

Ryan Allen has been a tremendous spark of the bench for Horizon League COY Rob Jeter.

1. Milwaukee (18-12, 13-5, 98)

Recent Results: Beat Cleveland State 87-83, Beat Youngstown State 94-87 (OT)

What an incredible story these Panthers have to tell.  Finding themselves sitting at seventh place in conference play at a 4-5 record, and just coming off a 60-43 thrashing at the hands of Valpo, the Panthers knew something had to change.  They held a team meeting where everything was laid out on the table.  Nothing was held back.   And the rest?  Well, that’s what we like to call history folks.  Senior F Anthony Hill went on to average 20 PPG, 6.5 RPG and shoot 76.6% at the stripe over this 9-game stretch and earned first team all-conference along the way.  Junior PG Kaylon Williams would go on to average 7.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG (!) and 7.8 APG (!) while earning a spot on the all-newcomer team (and certainly made a case for the second-team).   Junior G/F Ryan Allen was asked to defend the opponent’s best guard in crunch time, and while he didn’t play the minutes necessary to earn a spot on the all-defensive team, he was as important to his team as any other player.  Finally, head coach Rob Jeter improved as a coach so much that he earned the Horizon League Coach of the Year award; a well deserved honor for a guy who put all his faith in his vocal point guard, and had a lot of help from his qualified assistants.  Projected Finish: Lose in the Championship Game; NIT

Up Next: Saturday vs. Youngstown State/Valparaiso/Loyola/Detroit

Horizon League Power Rankings (December 28 – January 3)

The Horizon League drop to 10th in Conference RPI this week.

Yet another strange week in the Horizon League.  Who’s #1 this week???

In descending order…

10. Youngstown State (Overall Record: 5-7, Conference Record: 1-3, RPI: 245)

Recent Results: Beat UIC 71-69, Lost to Loyola 83-53

The Penguins squeaked one out against UIC at home, but were then crushed in the Beeghly Center by Loyola.  It’s really tough to forecast Youngstown’s next D-I win.  How many wins will they be able to pull out in the Horizon League?  Unfortunately, they don’t get to play UIC at home every week.

Up Next: Friday at Valparaiso (8-5)

9. UIC (4-10, 0-3, 217)

Recent Results: Lost to Youngstown State 71-69, Lost to Cleveland State 83-59

UIC is struggling right now.  They’ve lost 7 of their last 8, and if not for their upset over Illinois, they’d probably be sitting in last place in these power rankings.  Being within a possession of Youngstown State in Youngstown keeps them in 9th for now, but they’re definitely walking on thin ice.  Who knows when they’ll win their first Horizon League game…

Up Next: Thursday vs. Wright State (7-6)

Rahmon Fletcher is hoping to turn this season around for the young Phoenix

8. Green Bay (6-9, 1-3, 180)

Recent Results: Lost to Detroit 79-56, Lost to Wright State 67-64, Beat Houston Baptist 77-61

The Phoenix have beaten three sub-320 RPI teams so far this year, and haven’t looked particularly good in any of them.  Their best win of the year (arguably of course) was over 4-9 Miami (OH).  Single digit wins this season isn’t out of the question, but I have faith they’ll get 10.  This can’t be how Rahmon Fletcher or Bryquis Perine were hoping to end their college careers.

Up Next: Saturday vs. Milwaukee (8-8)

7. Detroit (7-7, 2-1, 206)

Recent Results: Beat Green Bay 79-56, Lost to Milwaukee 84-81

Apparently the Titans are going to try to win most games without the three-ball.  Detroit only gets 19.4% of their points from three point shots.  That’s tough in the Horizon League where you have a number of teams who are trying to bury you with the three ball.  On top of their lack of perimeter shooting, they’re a poor defensive team.  Ken Pomeroy is even a little confused as he labels their defense scheme as inconclusive.

Up Next: Thursday at Loyola (10-5)

Kaylon Williams is hoping that his buzzer beating shot in Detroit was the turning point for Milwaukee's season.

6. Milwaukee (8-8, 3-2, 135)

Recent Results: Lost to Wright State 68-44, Beat Detroit 84-81, Beat Butler 76-52

What a week for the Panthers!  They travel to Dayton to take on Wright State, only to be blown out by Vaughn Duggins and company.  Then they head north and knock off Detroit in overtime.  Finally, they head back home and absolutely demoralize Butler to end their 22 conference game win streak.  What the hell happened in between Wright State and Detroit!?  Kaylon Williams happened…  17 point against Detroit including the game-tying three pointer to send it to overtime, and a triple-double against Butler (10 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists and 1 turnover!) shows that Kaylon is the difference maker on this team and it’s him, not Anthony Hill, that makes the Milwaukee offense go.

Up Next: Saturday at Green Bay (6-9)

5. Wright State (7-6, 2-1, 145)

Recent Results: Beat Milwaukee 68-44, Beat Green Bay 67-64

Thoroughly dismantling Milwaukee was the highlight to a great week for the Raiders.  Vaughn Duggins has been outstanding and the post play for Wright State has been up to the task so far.  It seems I may have underestimated their ability to defend a bit there… Oops!  The Raiders travel to Chicago for a couple of tough games this week.  We’ll see what they’re made of soon enough.

Up Next: Thursday at UIC (4-10)

4. Loyola (10-5, 1-3, 164)

Recent Results: Lost to Cleveland State 73-55, Beat Youngstown State 83-53

Another team with a turbulent week as Loyola has yet to prove they are among the upper echelon of teams in the Horizon League.  I’d be shocked to see them get to 20 wins this year, but they have a good shot at 18.  They’ll really need to prove that they’re capable of beating solid teams.  Six of their wins this year have come against teams with a sub-280 RPI, and their best win came against 6-6 Western Michigan.

Up Next: Thursday vs. Detroit (7-7)

3. Valparaiso (8-5, 2-1, 70)

Recent Results: Beat Ball State 69-52, Lost to Butler 76-59

Valpo had two really nice wins in a row over Oakland and then Ball State.  Then they followed it up with a dud against Butler.  I still like the Crusaders for third in the conference though.  Unfortunately, for them, I don’t see it getting any better than that.

Up Next: Friday vs. Youngstown State (5-7)

2. Butler (9-5, 2-1, 18)

Recent Results: Beat Valpo 76-59, Lost to Milwaukee 76-52

What a shame the let down in Milwaukee was for the Bulldogs.  It really hurts their chances at an at-large bid and puts serious doubt into their minds for Friday’s huge matchup against Cleveland State.  Milwaukee really played a nearly flawless game, but Butler really didn’t show up to play.  I’d be shocked if we didn’t see Butler looking to avenge their loss on Monday with a home court win over the Vikings.

Up Next: Friday vs. Cleveland State (13-1)

1. Cleveland State (13-1, 4-0, 27)

Recent Results: Beat Loyola 73-55, Beat UIC 83-59

And earn their keep they have.  The Vikings had no problem dispatching of their Chicago based foes this week and it all sets up for a huge matchup at Hinkle Fieldhouse on Friday.  Coach Gary Waters has his guys playing extremely efficient basketball.  We’ll see who the king of the conference is come Friday…

Up Next: Friday at Butler (9-5)

Game One Reactions

Kevin O’Connor is earning his trip to Italy with his coverage of the experience.  Here’s a video of reactions to game one:

Schedule breakdown

Kaylon Williams will man the point for the Panthers in 2010-11, leading to a much quicker team and a better inside-out game.

Finally getting a chance to look at the basketball team’s schedule this past weekend, I came across a few things that I would like to point out to my fellow alumni, fans and others in the UWM community.  The schedule has both difficult games as well as simple ones, while maintaining a balance that I find satisfactory.

Just looking at the schedule, one can tell that the coaching staff heard the bellyaching from a lot of fans over the scheduling of two D-II teams in the regular season.  I don’t think it’s entirely unfair for the fans to feel that way, but like most Panther fans who long for the days of Bruce Pearl, they have selective memories.  People forget that Pearl’s Panthers played Parkside, Concordia-St. Paul, and Concordia-Wisconsin in the regular season.  No matter now, because you won’t find a single non-D-I game on our schedule.  Here is every game, with a sentence or two about each one.

Nov. 1st vs. MSOE and Nov. 6th vs. Carroll – It’s a good PR move to play local D-II and D-III teams in the exhibition games, and both are local if you consider Carroll as such.  I wouldn’t be against playing an exhibition game at MSOE’s Kern Center in the future; you do their athletic department well by giving them the gate at a home game, and you show our fans that a D-III school has a better facility than we do.  Open your checkbooks.

Nov. 12-14 Portland Tournament vs. Portland, Florida Atlantic and UC Davis – You’ll remember UC Davis as the team we went down to by 24 and then defeated at Iowa State a couple years ago.  The horror stories of Coach Jeter in the locker room at halftime are scary, but postgame it was all smiles.  UC Davis and FAU should be wins, but FAU may put up a fight.  Portland is an excellent game off the bat; should Milwaukee win in their house on opening night, that should tip us off to something special.  I am expecting us to go 2-1 with the loss coming against Portland.

MKE: 2-1

Nov. 17 at Niagara – Our former fearless leader, as I like to call him, signed off on this game.  The return BracketBuster could have been played next year, and I daresay our coaches hoped to gain this space for a possible high-major opponent, but here we are.  Without Tyrone Lewis, who they lost to graduation, Niagara loses a step on that infamous quickness.  Win.

MKE: 3-1

Nov. 20 vs. UNI – The home schedule gets kicked off with an excellent Saturday home game against the Sweet 16 Panthers.  Jordan Egleseder and Adam Koch, who killed us in Milwaukee in 2006-07, are graduated, as is Ali Faroukmanesh.  Don’t sleep on UNI, as they’re coached well by Ben Jacobson and have a decent road record.  However, they’re losing a lot and I don’t think we’ll lose at home.

MKE: 4-1

Nov. 23 vs. Western Michigan – This is the game where we play at the Klotsche Center.  The athletic department’s long term goal is to build a new arena on-campus, so expect a hell of a marketing campaign and a packed house.  Expect the students to show up in droves, and expect a big win.  WMU loses their three best players, and Flenard Whitfield is probably their best guy coming back, but they were a good team last year and we’ll see how far they drop off.

MKE: 5-1

Nov. 27 vs. Marquette – When we first signed the deal to play Marquette in a 4-for-1 series, the Milwaukee fan base circled this game as the best chance to win.  The fact of the matter is that Marquette has beaten us nine times when both teams are in D-I, and 38 or so dating back to some arbitrary date when MU just decided their team existed.  But none of those victories has ever come at our place, and there’s something to really see there.  Whether it’s Marquette-Milwaukee, Marquette College-Wisconsin State College, or Marquette Dentists-Milwaukee Normal, the game has never been played on the Panthers/Cardinals/Green Gulls home court.  As for the game itself, you’d think that it would feature high-major bigs against smaller, quicker mid-major guards, but that’s the exact opposite: Marquette is not going to win this game by outrebounding Milwaukee.  It is going to win the game by pressure defense with fast guards, specifically Darius Johnson-Odom and Vander Blue.

MKE: 5-2

Dec. 2 and 4 vs. Youngstown State and Cleveland State – YSU had a lot of individual talent last year, with DeAndre Mays, Kelvin Bright, and others.  They were still awful, going 2-16 in the Horizon League.  I highly doubt the Penguins will have a better mark this year with Vytas Sulskis and a bunch of nobodies.  Were it not for a shooting drought and poor ball handling at the end of last year’s game at the Wolstein Center, Milwaukee would have beaten Cleveland State three times.  CSU doesn’t lose anybody, but I’m not as sold as everyone else to anoint them.  With Kaylon Williams and his nearly 2-to-1 assists to turnover ratio manning the point, I expect to win this one.

MKE: 7-2, 2-0 Horizon

Dec. 8 at Wisconsin – This is gonna be a battle of aircraft carriers.  Anthony Hill, Jon Leuer, Kyle Kelm, Evan Anderson, J.P Gavinski, Mitch Carter, Ryan Haggerty…I’m done listing off big men.  Jordan Taylor may be the best guard on the court, but his matchup against Williams will be exciting.  I believe experience, even though the Panthers have it, will give the Badgers the nod.

MKE: 7-3, 2-0 Horizon

Dec. 11 at South Dakota State – This game will likely be a blowout, even though it’s on the SDSU home floor.  This is the final game of a series last played a few years ago.  Expect domination.

MKE: 8-3, 2-0 Horizon

Dec. 14 at DePaul – DePaul has a new coach in Oliver Purnell, but they were pretty bad last year.  Early season wins against UNI and Detroit were good, but not a lot of smiles to go around, leading to Jerry Wainwright’s dismissal.  Besides Detroit, both teams blew out UIC and Texas State last year, and while we lost to MU, DePaul beat the Golden Eagles, for the most entertaining loss Marquette has had in awhile.  Loved it.  I think we’re better this year, and will be better when we hit the Allstate Arena on this night.

MKE: 9-3, 2-0 Horizon

Dec 18 vs. Bowling Green – The Falcons were angry when we escaped Ohio with an overtime victory last year, and they should have been; a basket was tallied to Lonnie Boga that not everyone had.  It was clear as a basket after the game, but it was a tense moment for the BGSU fans.  I don’t expect overtime here.  Note: let’s sign another home-and-home so we can see their new arena.

MKE: 10-3, 2-0 Horizon

Dec 30 at Wright State – Luckily for Milwaukee, the Raiders will be missing their student section on this night.  Unfortunately, great shooting by the Raiders offsets their porous post game, and they tend to beat us in Dayton.  Good news for the Panthers, a true point guard in Williams will help a much better inside game and give the other four on the floor space to get open and take better shots.  I’m chalking this up as a victory, but let it be known that it was one of three or four that I waffled on.  Ant Hill could go off for 25 and 15.

MKE: 11-3, 3-0 Horizon

Jan 1 at Detroit – This most likely will be a night game, though it’s TBA for now.  Our victory at Calihan last season was one of the best of the year, but the additions of Ray McCallum Jr. and Jason Calliste make them a more formidable team.  Also, with another year under his belt, Eli Holman might be more consistent in the post.  We’ll call this a loss for now, pending the news on what their roster looks like in the new year.

MKE: 11-4, 3-1

Jan 3 vs. Butler – The reigning national runners-up never seem to really beat on us in Milwaukee.  When they were 14th in the nation and we were headed to a 9-22 season, the Bulldogs escaped the Cell with a five-point victory.  I’m expecting a hard fought battle, and like at Wright State, I waffled.  I’m going to call this a win based on our superior inside game (sorry Dawgs, but Ant Hill owns Matt Howard) and likely large crowd.  I hope this game is moved to not go against the football championship game, but I think we’ll have a good crowd regardless.

MKE: 12-4, 4-1

Jan 8 at Green Bay – I’m not going to mince words, I think Green Bay is headed to their worst season in awhile.  It’s no secret that their post game is awful, and without Randy Berry it’ll be worse (although 5 fouls, 0 points didn’t help at the Cell last season).  People blew the Fletcher-Jeter situation way out of proportion, all parties agreed after the game.  Still, this is a heated rivalry and I expect Green Bay to play up to the competition.  Jarvis Williams was a monster in the Pro-Am, but I’m concerned he will face much stiffer defense in the season and not be as effective.  Also, their lack of decent post players might force Brian Wardle to play him at the 4, which would be a mistake as he’s a 3, and a 3-guard at that.

MKE: 13-4, 5-1

Jan something vs. UIC – We don’t even know who UIC’s coach is going to be, but hopefully we will by next week.  The Flames gain Paul Carter, who was a big time player in Minnesota.  I wonder how his sister’s poor health will affect his game, however.  I hope that she recovers 100% by the time the season rolls around and this is a moot point, but I know as well as anyone how the poor health of a family member can have a negative effect on play.  Panthers win, and Paul Carter’s sister has a full recovery.

MKE: 14-4, 6-1

Jan 15 vs. Loyola – Jim Whitesell’s crew will not be battle-tested by the time this game rolls around, having played a soft non-conference schedule.  The Ramblers also have to worry about Andy Polka, who appears healthy but has had major health problems the last few seasons.  In any case, I expect Loyola’s upset (yes it was an upset) last season to be an aberration (although it seemed abhorrent to me).

MKE: 15-4, 7-1

Jan 20 at Valparaiso – Last season, Milwaukee shot poorly but behind Ja’Rob McCallum had the game in the bag.  Then, James Eayrs coughed up the inbounds pass and the ensuing Crusader layup gave away the game.  This season, don’t expect the close finish, but expect the same result.  The ARC is a very difficult place to win in this conference, and adding Jay Harris gives Valpo even more scoring punch than they had last year.

MKE: 15-5, 7-2

Jan 22 at Butler – Like Butler in Milwaukee, we just have a tough time down there.  Butler was a better team last year, and won by 13 in January before beating us by 9 in the semifinals.  However, with an actual home crowd unlike last season’s regular season victory at Hinkle, Butler will have a perfect storm that I don’t think we’ll be able to top.

MKE: 15-6, 7-3

Jan 28 vs. Detroit – This may be one of the most difficult home games of the year.  Eli Holman vs. Anthony Hill is a battle I will pay to see over and over, and if they bring in the full roster they could very well win.  However, the end of January is where Milwaukee typically gets hot, and that’s what I’m expecting here: victory.

MKE: 16-6, 8-3

Jan 30 vs. Wright State – Good opponent, but Wright State has some kind of weight on their mind grapes whenever they come to Milwaukee.  Expect the 13th straight victory at home over Wright State, but it won’t be easy.

MKE: 17-6, 9-3

Feb 5 vs. Green Bay – Rivalry games, especially MKE-GB, tend to be heated.  Teams play up to the competition.  But Green Bay, save for a couple years, just doesn’t win in Milwaukee against us.  And as with the case last year, I think we’re going to crush ’em.

MKE: 18-6, 10-3

Feb 10 at Loyola – Every season, there seems to be a team that comes up and snatches victory from the claws of defeat.  Last year, it was CSU and Valpo against us.  This year, I’m calling it Loyola at the Gentile Center, because of one thing: randomness.  And they do well against us.

MKE: 18-7, 10-4

Feb 12 at UIC – The Flames have a lot of decent talent at the top, from Robo Kreps and Zavion Neely to Paul Carter.  After those three, it gets sketchy.  I feel bad for K.C. Robbins, having to play Ant Hill.

MKE: 19-7, 11-4

Feb 16 vs. Valpo – Spurred by revenge for the loss at Valpo, the Panthers go on a run and stomp Homer Drew right out the door.  Just kidding.  Cory Johnson will be a match-up problem for the Panthers, and Valpo will score, but they have no defense, and our offense got a whole lot quicker this offseason.

MKE: 20-7, 12-4

Feb 24 and 26, at CSU and YSU – We’re looking at a difficult game in Cleveland.  They don’t have much of a home court advantage, but they don’t need it.  Waters’ team is very good and I expect them to play well by the end of the year.  It’s a deeper team too, so they won’t be as tired.  We’ll call this one a loss.  The YSU game is an easy win; they are, as my cousins in Boston would say, “bad.”

MKE: 21-8, 13-5

You’ll notice that I left out the Bracket Buster game.  No reason to predict anything that isn’t there.  But 22-8 or 21-9 is easily seen.  I wavered on a few games, most notably these:

at Wright State

vs. Butler

vs. Marquette

We very well could lose those first two, and we might beat Marquette.  My 2-1 record for those game, if 0-3, would make Milwaukee 20-10 or 19-11, and if we went 3-0 we’d be 23-7 or 22-8.  Do any of those numbers seem so far out of reach?

I get that we lost Ricky Franklin and James Eayrs.  However, both players had their drawbacks.  With Franklin running the point, he often was reluctant to give up the ball because he might not get it back.  It’s a drawback to having a scoring point guard; they’re willing to facilitate the offense, but they’ll take theirs when they need to.  This season, Kaylon Williams won’t care if he goes scoreless, as long as the team wins and he racks up 8 assists.  Believe it or not, I fully expect Kaylon Williams to lead the Horizon League in assists as a junior much like he led the Missouri Valley in assists as a freshman.  He just doesn’t care about scoring as much as he cares about pushing the floor and creating scoring opportunities.

Eayrs, on the other hand, wasn’t very mobile.  He’s a great shot and a decent inside player, but the team couldn’t run with a lot of people because he’d get left behind.  His durability was an issue, and in both seasons his knees kept him out of practice and on the bench during stretches of games near the end of the year.  This season, every player on the team can run the floor, and that’s a good thing.

At the end of the season, I really think it’s NCAA or bust.  The only way I can be convinced of otherwise is if we win a couple games or more in the NIT, but really we need to get back into the NCAA tournament.  McCallum as the backup point guard may be a question mark; he really needs to defend better because I worry getting him against Norris Cole or Rahmon Fletcher would expose a weak point in our defense.  Otherwise, I’m fine with it.  I believe that Ja’Rob McCallum will, however, assert himself as an excellent shooting guard.  Having him come in for Tone Boyle creates a great Williams-McCallum 1-2 punch at guard that I think I’ll enjoy.

And from watching practices as well as hearing about this first game in Italy, I think another fan wish is coming true: a much, much faster program.  Expect the fast break this season, people.  With a deep bench, we might even get to see…gasp…the UWM Press.