Badgers game brings rare heavyweight bout #BeatUW

For the first time in four years and only the fourth time since Milwaukee went D-I in 1990, the Wisconsin Badgers will be making the trip to Brew City to take on the Milwaukee Panthers.  The Badgers are 8-2, identical to the Panthers, but their resume is far more impressive.

While other Badgers get more pub, Ryan Evans is quietly a driving force behind Bucky's success.

Wisconsin boasts three guards – Jordan Taylor, Josh Gasser, and Ben Brust – that can beat you by themselves.  Taylor is a pre-season All-American who runs the point and can do it all for the Badgers.  While an ankle injury has slowed him down somewhat, he still can get the ball to Wisconsin’s scorers, giving UW a dangerous point man to run the show.

Josh Gasser was recruited heavily by the Milwaukee coaching staff that tried to import the entire Swing AAU club – Gasser, Kyle Kelm, Evan Richard, Chip Rank, and Marquis Mason – but failed to do so.  Gasser is the point guard of the future, but right now is content with filling up buckets and playing the glue man when Taylor is on point.

Kaylon Williams needs to control the game the way he can.

Receiving a player that had committed to Iowa didn’t make a lot of headlines, but Ben Brust has proven that he is capable of being a big time scorer that the Badgers have lacked for quite some time.  Brust is a streak shooter who occasionally catches lightning in a bottle and beats teams by himself.  He scored 21 against BYU and 27 against UNLV in two games that proved you can’t leave him open on the arc (he was a combined 14-for-17 from three in the two games) under any circumstances.  Outside of those two games, his effectiveness has been limited to low-majors (Kennesaw State, Colgate, UMKC) but he is still a dangerous shooter.

The big problem for Milwaukee could come on the front line, however.  Kyle Kelm and James Haarsma had difficulty with UNI’s large front line, and the Badgers’ version is only better.  Jared Berggren is the kind of center that doesn’t make mistakes and scores at a decent clip.  Berggren may not be the big time banger on the glass, but usually he doesn’t have to be as the Badgers are a solid shooting team.

Ryan Evans could be the game changer for the Badgers tomorrow night.  At 6’6”, Evans is tall enough to give guys like Paris Gulley fits trying to guard his size, but he’s also quick enough to get by Tony Meier or Kyle Kelm.  He’s a good shooter inside the arc and, like Ricky Franklin or Kaylon Williams, has a nose for rebounds and wins rebounding battles against taller forwards.

Defense is how Milwaukee will send Bucky home whimpering.

In the end, though, it all comes down to Bo Ryan.  The coach turned Wisconsin basketball from barely-high-major to full-on power program in a short space of time.  Bo’s tenure at Milwaukee was short but helped our program springboard into our first real national success, and all that is due to his coaching and recruiting ability.  While Ryan doesn’t tend to get many top-50 recruits, he does pick up a lot of players that do two things – shoot the ball well from anywhere on the floor at any size, and take care of the basketball.

The Badgers’ vaunted Swing offense has built them into a team that can beat just about anyone.  The Kohl Center has become part of that identity too, a death trap for opposing programs.

But we’ve got some things that ‘ol Bucky may not be counting on.  The Arena is no easy court to win in, especially when the place is full as it looks to be close to tomorrow.  A high number of tickets have been sold to Panther fans, who are starting to come out of the woodwork with Milwaukee’s excellent start to the season.  The Panthers also have built an identity on defense.  Now, that identity may have been shaken by the events of last week, but the Badgers will not run the ball like DePaul and Milwaukee will not break down right after it did so at UNI.

Milwaukee can guard any team in the country, they just need to dig, to never stop digging in.  The Panthers have legitimate three-point threats at every position on the floor, and if they close out on the arc they’ll be able to give Bucky fits all day.

This is the most important part.  One of Wisconsin’s greatest strengths is that they do not make mistakes, and they sit and bide their time and wait for you to make yours.  Once the mistakes happen, the Badgers grab hold of it and never let go.

It is very important that Kaylon Williams understands this last part.  At UNI, in front of dozens of family and friends from Cedar Rapids, Williams forced himself into trying to impress them and do everything for the Panthers.  This led to a lot of mistakes (seven turnovers in the box score, could have easily been nine) that UNI capitalized on and blew the game open.

Williams shot the ball well and found open players on the court, but he needs to settle down against Wisconsin and not let what they do fluster him on the court. Slow down, control the game, and good things will happen.  Always, always, always take care of the ball, and Milwaukee will come out on top.

This is your opportunity, Milwaukee, to show the country that this is a program to be reckoned with.

TROUNCE ‘EM POUNCE

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Texas Southern: A Closer Look

Hidden in the beastly effort over Texas Southern yesterday are statistics that are not found in the box score.  This year, we’ve shown you the Offensive Rating as well as the Free Throw Rate for the team.  Today, we’ll be including a few other stats and providing the numbers for every player in the rotation from last night’s game.

After struggling with his shot the first few games, Ja'Rob McCallum turned it on.

The Plus-minus rating is something that people are familiar with.  Basically, by documenting the score every time a player comes in and out of the game, you can find out how much better the Panthers do in scoring against their opponents when certain players are on the court.  It doesn’t favor guards or forwards, but typically favors the players who are on the court when the team makes a run, obviously.  If Kaylon starts the game and leaves when Milwaukee is up 25-2 and never comes back, Kaylon’s plus-minus is 23.  If Ryan Haggerty enters the game at 38-13 and leaves at 45-23, Ryan’s plus-minus rating is -3.  This continues all game and the totals are put together afterwards.

Once we have the Plus-Minus rating for individual players, you can find their Roland Rating.  The Roland Rating is a simple measurement that simply shows how the team did when the player was on the court and when the player was off the court.  For yesterday’s game, the players who were on the court during the big runs – read, starters – will have a much better rating than the players who came on the court after the big runs were over.  So while Shaq Boga has a Roland Rating of -26, the team still gained 9 points on the Tigers while he was on the court.

The final new statistic I’ll be adding in today is the Effective Field Goal Percentage.  While the eFG% is much the same as the normal field goal percentage, it comes with a tweak.  Three-pointers made are counted as 1.5 times the normal two-point field goal, because after all that’s how they’re counted in the game.  The three-point field goal is more difficult to achieve than the two-point field goal, so this equation rewards shooting guards who otherwise almost always end up with lower field goal percentages than their post counterparts.  While none of these numbers – as well as the Offensive Rating that we brought to you yesterday – are perfect, together they give the analyst a strong base on which to judge a player’s performance.

The leaders in each category are bold (minimum 3 shots to lead FG).

Player Offensive Rating Plus/Minus Roland Rating Effective Field Goal %
Kaylon Williams 140.2 30 25 77.7
Kyle Kelm 71.4 32 29 40
Ja’Rob McCallum 191.5 22 9 85.7
James Haarsma 124.4 28 21 40
Ryan Allen 180 23 11 66.6
Paris Gulley 144.2 6 -23 42.8
Shaquille Boga 85.1 9 -26 20
Demetrius Harris 137 7 -21 50
Evan Richard 115.3 4 -27 25
Ryan Haggerty 103.6 -4 -43 100

Tweetus and Offensive Rating

Tweetus – Need to get pysched up for today’s match-up against Texas Southern?

In case you didn’t know, Ja’Rob McCallum operates with the nickname Simo Häyhä.  What in the name of umlauts does that mean?  I don’t know, but let’s hope he can get some consistency scoring behind the name change.  Apparently Meta World Peace was taken.

Significant numbers – Today I’m going to introduce you all to the statistic we know as “Offensive Rating,” or a smarter version of the plus-minus and Gonzaga ratings.  It’s an attempt to determine how important a player is to their team on the court.

Now, if you are unaware, the Plus-Minus rating is where you document the score as players come in and out of the game.  This way, you can determine which combinations of five players do the best.  Also, in a smaller way, you see which players are on the court when the team does well; since an individual player is not always on the court with the same four teammates every time, you see separation in the plus-minus and therefore may be able to determine which players are better.

The Offensive Rating takes this further.  The actual equation is “Offensive Rating = Individual points produced / individual possessions.”  However, knowing that both of those terms are foreign to most of our readers, we’ll dive in to each and then explain.

Individual points produced are the amount of points that an individual player is accountable for.  This includes the obvious made field goals and made free throws, but also includes points scored where the player plays an integral role in the points being scored.  This includes assists, which are tallied when points are scored and likely would not have been without the pass from the assist man, as well as offensive rebounds that lead to a score.  These are all important because the fact is that the player who scored the basket on the possession would likely not have done so without the help of the player who tallied those statistics.

Efficient.

The second part of this is individual possessions.  It’s very easy.  The amount of individual possessions is tallied by the amount of times the player is on the court when his team’s possession is ended by a made basket, turnover, or opponent defensive rebound.

So, when you take the individual points produced and divide it by the individual’s possessions, that’s where you get the Offensive Rating.  It is not entirely accurate.  It doesn’t take into account the possessions ended by players other than the subject.  So, when Kaylon Williams threw the ball way over Ryan Allen’s head on Friday, that possession counts for Kyle Kelm even though he did not have a direct or indirect play on the ball.

Even so, I believe it’s a better gauge of a player’s offensive ability and should be taken into account when choosing a line-up.

On the Panthers, no player has a better Offensive Rating than Mitch Roelke.  This has a lot to do with his two three-pointers against SMSU, but even more so to do with the lack of possessions he accumulated so far this season.

The score is a percentage.  So, if a player is on the court for one possession and scores one free throw before coming out of the game, his Offensive Rating is 100.  It’s the break-even mark and the number that is standard; in other words, if you play a bunch of minutes and you are higher than 100, you are doing a really, really good job.  Taking Mitch Roelke out, here are the players in the rotation and their Offensive Ratings:

Player Offensive Rating
Ryan Allen 120.1
James Haarsma 115.8
Evan Richard 107.7
Ja’Rob McCallum 97.9
Ryan Haggerty 96.4
Paris Gulley 92.5
Kyle Kelm 91.1
Kaylon Williams 75.4
Demetrius Harris 39.1

Don’t be alarmed by seeing Kaylon Williams so far down the list.  Williams plays in so many possessions and has a hand in so many scoring opportunities that it’s almost impossible for him to get a high rating.  Basically, you have to be extremely efficient when you are on the floor.  That’s why Ryan Haggerty, who does not play many minutes, is so high on the list – when he’s on the court, he makes the best of it.
I leave you with this, our current leader in Offensive Rating in the post:

Improve everyday – Texas Southern, 4 p.m. Sunday

As the Milwaukee Panthers wound down their time in the game against the IUPUI Jaguars, attention turned to Texas Southern, the next opponent to come through the Arena.  Milwaukee defeated IUPUI on Friday night to move to 3-0 on the season.

Texas Southern is 1-2 on the season, dropping their last game at Michigan State by 35 points on Friday.  The Tigers won their first game in the in-season tournament by dispatching Eastern Michigan 66-49 on Tuesday in their only home game thus far.

Ryan Allen will be key to slowing down Lawrence Johnson-Danner.

The Tigers are led in scoring by Lawrence Johnson-Danner, who is scoring 15 points per game and is shooting 47.8% from the floor.  Johnson-Danner also leads the Tigers in assists at 3.5 apg.  Omar Strong, who is scoring 13.6 points per game, is their second scoring option.  Strong has scored in double figures in each of the Tigers’ three games this season.

Texas Southern is 336th in the nation in rebounding this season, pulling in only 26.5 rpg.  However, the Tigers low rebounding totals can come from the efficiency on the offensive end; TSU is shooting 48.9% on the season, good for 73rd in the nation.

On the defensive end, the Tigers confuse opponents by throwing a number of looks on them.  They play the press often, using an 11-man rotation to keep the defense rested.  The Tigers also throw a lot of zone looks at opposing teams, switching frequently to achieve that confusion.

The efficient shooting of LJD and the other Tigers will be a stiff test for Milwaukee’s stout defense.  Since returning Kaylon Williams from the one-game suspension and moving Paris Gulley back to his normal position of shooting guard, the Panthers have given up 57 and 49 points in two games based on a wicked perimeter defense from Williams, Gulley and Ryan Allen.

Game time is 4 p.m., leaving Packer fans a lot of time to get to the arena once the Pack has the game in hand against Tampa Bay.

Lonnie Boga confirmed to PantherU on Friday night that he will be in uniform and ready to return to action against Texas Southern.

League vs. League – Summit’s IUPUI invades

Opponent #3: IUPUI Jaguars, November 18th, US Cellular Arena

Ron Hunter spent a very large portion of the past two decades as head coach of the Summit League’s IUPUI Jaguars.  So it was a bit of a surprise when the noted good samaritan took his feet down to Georgia State of the CAA last spring.  His replacement, Todd Howard, spent 16 years at IUPUI as an assistant and associate head coach, so the Jaguars have been prepared for this for awhile, but it’s still a surprising move outside of Indy.  The Jaguars are set at most positions and, unlike the Huskies who also went through a coaching transition, aren’t expected to fall off.

Alex Young will be one hard man to stop at the Cell on November 18th.

– Key player: Alex Young. The senior wingman does it all for IUPUI.  At 6’6” and 200 lbs., Alex Young is an iron man for the Jags.  Young rarely comes off the court, averaging 31.6 minutes last season as a junior.  The hometown wing was first on the team with 19.7 ppg in 2010-11, and no player in the country comes into this season having scored as many points as Alex Young, who has 1,633 to his name already.  Head coach Todd Howard had this to say to IUPUIJags.com. “He’s worked tremendously on his perimeter game and is one the premier slashers in the nation. Plus, he’s really focused on all the other ways to score, whether it be putbacks, getting to the (free throw) line and finishing in transition. In the jump from his freshman to sophomore year, we talked a lot about finding extra opportunities to score.”

– Wanted: dimes. Starting point guard John Ashworth, who led the team with 96 assists last season, has departed.  That leaves a hole to fill in the starting lineup.  Stephen Thomas could move from shooting guard over to the point, but that just moves the hole over to shooting guard.  That role could be filled by Sean Esposito, the junior who scored the most amount of points outside the starting lineup.  Sophomore Donovan Gibbs could also be that guy for the Jaguars if they wanted to go big, moving Young down to shooting guard.

– Sophomore Surge. IUPUI players in the past have blossomed as sophomores.  Alex Young did it, now San Antonio Spurs George Hill did it, and so did a slew of others.  Among the crop of sophomores-to-be, Donovan Gibbs looks to be the one to make the jump.  With an opening on the wing, Gibbs has the opportunity to move himself into major playing time this season.

– Long, athletic, fast. They definitely have big bodies – Cameron Loepker, a junior center who started at IUPUI, left, and came back, is 6’9” and 275 – but their real strength is long, quick athletes.  Christian Siakam led the team with 6.9 rpg but was extremely athletic in the paint doing so, grabbing 108 offensive rebounds on the season.  P.J. Hubert, Marcellus Barksdale, Nick Kitcoff, Gibbs, and Lyonnell Gaines provide Howard with a lot of long bodies to throw at Milwaukee’s taller players.  IUPUI has a lot more height than the average Horizon League team.

The Jaguars have been paced by Young, but fell victim to UALR 75-70 on Tuesday night.  The game was well-played, but the Jaguars couldn’t gain an edge on UALR inside the paint, being outrebounded 38-30 and giving up 12 second-chance points.

IUPUI guard Stephen Jackson was out of the first game but played against UALR.  Overall, the Jags are shooting well but are not getting to the line as much as they’d like.

In the early season, with the talent level they are bringing into the Cell, this is the stiffest test the Panthers have faced thus far.

Tip-off is 7 p.m, but join PantherU.com for a pre-game meal at Major Goolsby’s at 5 p.m.  Some IUPUI faithful are going to join us and it’s always a good time when fans from opposing teams can get together in good fun.

Stopping Alex Young

He’s long. He’s strong.  He’s fast. He’s scoring in every way imaginable.  He’s on his way to the NBA. No player that the Panthers have seen in this young season can stack up to him.

His name is Alex Young. And he’s damn near impossible to stop.

Young failed to score ten points in a game once last season.

In two games this season, Young is averaging 19.5 points per game and 6.5 rebounds per game.  He is skilled, but his game is all about pure athleticism.

A hometown kid who didn’t get much in the way of recruitment, Young was picked up by IUPUI coach Ron Hunter and groomed to be the successor in a long line of tall wing guard/forwards who are dynamic scorers.

A dynamic scorer he became.  Since coming to the Jaguars, Young has increased his production from 11 to 18 to 19 points per game.  With 20 points in his first game and 19 Tuesday night against UALR, it looks as though Young is on his way towards doing it again.

Some teams have had success against him.  In a game against Oral Roberts last season, he was held to just six points on 3-for-12 shooting. While he didn’t score under ten points the rest of the season, the Jaguars lost many games.

The simple fact is that Young is going to get his.  But to beat the Jaguars, you need to slow him down.  Decrease his efficiency – force him to get 20 points on 8 of 20 shooting instead of 8 of 13.  Force him to miss a lot of shots and you make the Jaguars far less efficient.

How do you do that?  Confusion.  The good thing about the Panthers is that there are a lot of players on the program that can theoretically defend Young.

On the perimeter, players like Kaylon Williams, Ryan Allen and Paris Gulley can be used on a rotation, cutting out his outside shot.  They can’t keep him covered by themselves; they are not nearly long enough to alter his shot as he drives to the hole.

Milwaukee will need to funnel Young into the waiting arms of our taller defenders.

Perhaps Young’s strongest part of his game is that ability to drive the lane.  Many of his points are scored while he is taking the ball to the hole.  His speed helps him blow past slower defenders, and his length gets him past most guards who have trouble blocking his shots.

What Milwaukee will have to do to minimize his driving ability is two things.  First, they need to cut off the driving lanes that give him a direct line to the basket.  If he doesn’t have open space to lay in the easy buckets, he’ll have to work harder at his shots.  The second part is funneling him directly to the height of the team – Kyle Kelm and Demetrius Harris have the height and blocking ability to get in his face and force him to miss shots.  Maybe they won’t get a block every time down the floor, but they’ll be able to alter enough shots for him to become inefficient, thus giving the Panthers more possessions.

So look for the Panthers to take advantage of all that length in trying to stop Young from destroying their defense.  If they don’t, you’re going to have a long night at the Cell.

What the Panthers lack without #21

This much we knows is true: despite beginning the season 2-0, no one in the Milwaukee Panthers fan base has been pleased with how the two games have gone.

Southwest Minnesota State was playing the game at the end like they had a chance to win, because they did.  Northern Illinois almost clanked in a game-winner at the buzzer.  This is a team that lost first-team All-Conference player Anthony Hill and volume shooter Tone Boyle.  But what else is the team missing?

Tony Meier's absence has been notable. But what is it that makes him so important?

Tony Meier.  And everyone knows it.  But why is it that Tony Meier’s absence has the rest of the team in such a funk?

The fact of the matter is that without Tony Meier, the Panthers don’t have a lot of room with which to work.

Milwaukee’s offense is predicated very much on spacing.  Tony Meier’s role, whether the inside presence is Anthony Hill or James Haarsma and the point guard is Ricky Franklin or Kaylon Williams, is to provide spacing.  Yes, he’s there to score points. Yes, he’s there to draw fouls and take advantage of his great free-throw shooting.  But what makes Meier so effective, and the Panthers as a team, is the spacing they can achieve.

Spacing is all about spreading out a defense.  In the first couple games without Tony Meier, the Panthers have lost much of their ability to get spacing.  Take the starting lineup from tonight’s Northern Illinois game for example.  Ryan Allen and Ja’Rob McCallum start as the 2 and 3 on the wing, Kaylon Williams runs the point, and James Haarsma is the 5.  Without Tony Meier in the game, it is up to Kyle Kelm to run the 4 spot, with help from Ryan Haggerty and Demetrius Harris, depending on the personnel on the court.

Ja'Rob McCallum's newfound strength will help him drive the lane. But what if there's no lane to drive?

Kelm is a good player, and he’s going to be great down the road.  But Kelm has yet to show in college that he is a force to be reckoned with from the outside.  Because of their height, both Kelm and Meier have jump shots that are practically unblockable.  What a player like Evan Richard achieves with amazing jumping ability, they achieve just by being really tall.  Meier’s shooting, of course, has been far more consistent and effective – this is mainly because he has two years of experience on Kelm, but the fact remains that when he gets the outside shots, whether they be from two or three, he knocks them down.

This causes several things to happen.  First, and most important, Meier’s shooting ability from the outside forces the opposing defense to guard him when he’s out there.  Because they have to do that, they are not able to sag their four defender into the post and double-team the five.  In case you haven’t noticed, James Haarsma has been living with people on his back the first two games of the season.  These double teams are why.

Not only does the 5 find himself in a precarious position offensively, but that sagging 4 defender is also in place to cut off driving lanes for Milwaukee guards.  Ja’Rob McCallum’s newfound leg and arm strength led him to drive the lane at will against Parkside in exhibition, but against regular season opponents he isn’t finding the space to make that happen.  The same goes for Ryan Allen and Evan Richard.  While McCallum and Richard have the jump shots to step back and pop, Allen is still improving in that area and could be scoring more if Meier were in the lineup.

Speaking of McCallum and Richard stepping back and taking outside shots, the lack of an effective outside shooter at the four means that there are more outside shots.  I realize that sounds confusing, but having a post player who can also shoot well from the outside forces the defense to commit help out to him, which in turn opens up the driving lanes and closer shots.

There is one simple truth about basketball.  The closer you get to the rim, the higher shooting percentage you make.  So while it’s good to have Meier outside shooting threes, it’s better to have Anthony Hill inside pounding the glass.  Eight times out of ten you’re going to end up with the inside player scoring more.

Anthony Hill was very effective in the post, but how would he have done if he had the constant double-team that James Haarsma is facing this season?

This is the foundation of Milwaukee’s championship team.  For the first time in Jeter’s tenure, the Panthers not only found themselves above the cellar in shooting, but in the top half of the conference.  This came largely from Anthony Hill’s high shooting percentage, which existed because Anthony Hill spent his senior year camped out underneath the basket.

Without Meier on the court, Haarsma is getting double-teamed, finding the offensive glass much more crowded, and the team as a whole is finding their driving lanes cut off far more often than they would if Meier were on the court.

Meier is a decent post player, but his outside shooting makes him a many-headed monster and a scary player to guard.  That makes it impossible for opponents to leave him open on the perimeter, because if they do he makes them pay.  And by bringing the defenders out to meet him, the Panthers find much more open lanes in which to drive.

To me, the answer is simple.  The team can either wait for Meier to heal, weather the stormy November and hope he comes back in December ready to go immediately, or they can find that #4 who can score on both the inside and outside.

Kyle Kelm is that guy.  He has a good outside shooting stroke, but he needs it to be more consistent if he’s going to help the team fix its major spacing issue.  This is why the SMSU game was so troubling; Kelm seemed more comfortable on the outside, yet he was almost forcing himself to play that four spot underneath as a prototypical power forward.

Kelm bulked up this offseason, this much is obvious.  His arms and legs are noticeably stronger, but that doesn’t mean he needs to camp out on the block like Ant Hill did.  On the contrary, it should only mean that when he is down low, he can use that extra strength to power through defenders.  It doesn’t mean he needs to spend any more time on the block.  If you are a perimeter-shooting power forward, by all means continue to be that player.  I don’t think anyone is arguing Steve Novak should have played more down low at Marquette.

Find the player who can draw opponents to the outside at the four position, and the Panthers will find the key they need to open up the offensive locked door.