Keeping chase

Have you ever been to a horse race?

Even though it only takes one lap to finish – this ain’t NASCAR – the winner is not the sprinter, but the one who goes the distance.

We’re in turn three, only five games away from the finish line (four for Valpo).  And for the second time in as many years, Milwaukee does not control its fate.

Last night, Valparaiso emerged from the battle in Cleveland as the front runner.  Despite tying the Vikings in the loss column (3), Valpo swept the season series with Cleveland State and thus owns the tie-breaker.

It was a decisive victory for the Crusaders, a road laugher against the team many of us thought of as the top dogs.  Cleveland State’s aura of impenetrability was dashed quickly by Valpo, who dropped their high-scoring hammer on the Vikings.

If Panther fans were hoping for some clarity Thursday night, they were left disappointed.  Now three teams are within two losses of the championship, and five teams are within three.  Butler knocked out Youngstown State at the Beeghly Center, giving the victory for the night to the state of Indiana (no Hoosiers) and pushing a gridlock at both first and third place.

And then we have Milwaukee.  Banished to ESPN3 by the Horizon League, ESPN and their own failure in social media marketing, the Panthers will play surging Detroit with third place up for grabs, yet again.

It’s intriguing, really – should the Panthers lose tonight, the Panthers would find themselves in a four-way tie with Butler, Detroit, and Youngstown State.  Tiebreakers are a non-starter, as there’s very little chance that a four-way tie persists at the end of the season.

Milwaukee can put the slimmest of margins between themselves and the pack with a victory in Calihan Hall, their third in a row at the storied gym and in the process put any thoughts of them finishing out of the top six to rest.

The thing is, a victory at Calihan Hall shouldn’t direct your eyes at the rest of the pack. Instead, set your sights dead on Cleveland State.

Should Milwaukee go 5-0 the rest of the way, all the Panthers would need is for Cleveland State to lose one more conference game and they’d be guaranteed the #2 seed in the Horizon League Tournament.  I’m a big proponent of the “go 1-0 every game” philosophy, but it’s intriguing to know that all you need is one stumble from the Vikings to get the double-bye.

The possibility that Cleveland State could lose one more time (besides at Milwaukee) is intriguing.  They play a home game against Butler, a road game at Green Bay, and home games against Detroit and Wright State.  There are no Chicago schools remaining on the schedule, no bunnies to feast.  Their “worst” opponent remaining is Wright State, who is only four losses behind them in the right column.

So the championship is not out of the question, especially a co-championship or a second-place finish. Milwaukee just has to drop all the B.S. and take care of business – a victory every game from here on out.

 

Ugly but they’ll take it

Free throw shooting once again reared its ugly head. So did a swiss cheese defense that allowed Ronald Nored multiple easy drives to the basket.

But the Panthers will take what they can get and turn it into a positive. Holding the Butler Bulldogs to just 17 second-half points, the Milwaukee Panthers improved to 14-8 overall and 7-3 in the Horizon League, 53-42.

Despite hitting bottom by shooting 6-for-18 from the free throw line, the Panthers gutted out the victory by playing stiff defense at the end of the game.  A notable performance at the end came from Ryan Haggerty, who stuffed home the dagger dunk but also won a HUGE loose ball on the other end to preserve the lead for another possession.

Milwaukee held the Bulldogs to 28.1% shooting on the night, including 1-of-16 from long range.  Strong defense came back, as Milwaukee gave up very few open shots, especially along the perimeter.

It was truly a team effort, as the difference between the fifth highest scorer and highest was a mere five points.  James Haarsma went 6-for-9 from the floor and scored 12 points, Ryan Allen scored 11 on 4-of-8 shooting, Paris Gulley had nine, and Tony Meier and Kyle Kelm each scored seven.

It was good to see Gulley get open shots – they weren’t falling, and he wasn’t shooting as much from the perimeter as he should, but he made big shots.  The three-pointer to put Milwaukee up six was the biggest shot of the game.

Also pleasing to Milwaukee fans was the somewhat return of Tony Meier. He scored seven points but hit two of his three attempts beyond the arc.  Meier also pulled down eight rebounds, playing Andrew Smith strong down low.  Kyle Kelm also had his best game in awhile, adding nine rebounds to his docket.

Kaylon Williams had a tough night shooting the ball, but again proved why he is the best point guard in the Horizon League by dishing out 11 assists and putting up the best +/- score (14) of any player on the floor.  The point is, Kaylon Williams is a winner, and he played like one tonight despite not having the best night from the floor.

Elliott Kampen’s three-pointer was the lone bomb that Butler dropped all night.  It was significant, keeping Butler in the game by pulling them within 37-33, but it wasn’t enough.

Shortly after coming into the game with about seven minutes remaining, Andrew Smith scored on a tip-in off a Khyle Marshall miss to bring the score to 41-38 Milwaukee.  That would be the closest Butler would get the rest of the night, as the Panthers clamped down on defense, only allowing four more points from Butler in the final six minutes of the game.

Milwaukee (14-8, 7-3 HL) faces Valparaiso (14-8, 7-3 HL) in a battle of teams with identical records on Saturday at 1 p.m.  The game is at the U.S. Cellular Arena.

Tipping point

There comes a time in every team’s season where the players on the roster make an unconscious decision. Either they continue to work the way they’ve been working, accept the status quo and take their allocated dosage of lumps, or they begin to work harder, make a stronger concerted effort to right the wrongs of the season and make their way into the light.

Milwaukee and Butler will be wearing special Military uniforms for tonight's game.

Last year, after absorbing yet another significant double-digit loss, the Milwaukee Panthers sat in a hotel room in Indianapolis and made a conscious decision to make the rest of the season their own.  You know what happened next.

Tonight, the Milwaukee Panthers stand on their home court, across from their familiar foe. It was these Butler Bulldogs that represented Milwaukee’s first victory in a line of ten conference triumphs that led all the way to the conference championship game. Then, it was these Bulldogs again.

On our court. Taking our bid to the NCAA Tournament.

I will never claim that the Milwaukee Panthers would have made it all the way to the Final Four this past March, but they certainly looked better than the national runner-up in two of three games.

It’s a much different team.  Gone are Shelvin Mack and Zach Hahn, Matt Howard and Shawn Vanzant, the nucleus of two Final Four teams.  Their replacements aren’t achieving at the level that Butler fans have come to expect, but they are far from a rebuilding program.

Andrew Smith can become a dominant force in the low block.

Andrew Smith has come into his own, scoring 10.6 ppg and pulling down 5.8 rebounds per contest.  He is shooting 52.4% from the floor, a number that proves defending him is much more difficult than it used to be.  He is much more consistent down low in the post, and he’s a stronger player than he was while playing Matt Howard’s wing man.

Roosevelt Jones, the 6’4” freshman wing, is an extremely athletic and talented player who handles the ball beyond his age and can make you pay with his ability.  Jones scored six points against Milwaukee in Indianapolis, but he was very much the difference-maker in a first half that was quickly turning into a blowout in favor of the Panthers.

Kameron Woods is a player that doesn’t get a lot of publicity around the league, but he should.  He is undoubtedly the best stopper of Butler’s younger talents, able to play strong man-to-man defense in the block or towering zone defense with longer arms.

The 6’6” forward Khyle Marshall may be the best player on the court for the Bulldogs.  Marshall, who burst out onto the scene in the 2011 NCAA Tournament, is a banger in the block who shoots at a high percentage because he just doesn’t take dumb jump shots.  Marshall is shooting 55.9% from the field, scoring 9.2 ppg and pulling down over four rebounds per game.  His weakness at the free throw line is what’s keeping him from becoming a real dominant player – his 48.5% free throw percentage would fit into Milwaukee’s roster unfortunately well.

Chase Stigall can still shoot from distance even though he's struggling this season.

He doesn’t shoot from beyond the arc, and that’s probably the biggest difference between this Butler team and those of the past – they just aren’t a great shooting team.

In the past, when guys like Howard would get eaten up on occasion, other players stepped up – Zach Hahn and Shawn Vanzant each had 20-point games against the Panthers.  Hahn did it from beyond the arc, but no one on Butler’s squad really does that.

Ronald Nored and Andrew Smith are an identical 13 of 32 from the three-point arc, which means they’re shooting 40.6% but also means that they’re not shooting much from out there.  Chase Stigall was a bomber early in his career, but since becoming the Dawgs’ main threat from the outside is only shooting 30.2% from three.

This Bulldogs team relies instead on higher percentage shots – drives to the lane and inside scoring – and takes care of the ball like we’re accustomed to seeing from Butler.

To win this game, Milwaukee has to take care of the ball. They can’t be loose with it, even though they might try to push the tempo a little more to get better open shots for Tony Meier and Paris Gulley.  They need to get the ball into Haarsma and Kelm – putting Smith in foul trouble is a must, because the Bulldogs just aren’t the same with him out of the game.

Most importantly, though, they need to rise to the occasion.  Milwaukee’s perfect back nine in 2011 was due to the team believing in themselves night in and night out, making every game a mission and a winning result the primary objective.

Tonight, that needs to be the case once again. Milwaukee needs to put the Bulldogs in their crosshairs and take a shot at redemption.  The season is far from over, there is still much work to do – and the work begins tonight.

Rivalry renewed at Hinkle #BeatButler #HLMBB

There is a real opportunity sitting in front of the Milwaukee Panthers.  Hinkle Fieldhouse, the site where Milwaukee kicked off its 12-game conference regular season winning streak, will be rocking on Saturday as the Butler Bulldogs try to get a leg up in the early Horizon League race.  They see what we see; at 3-1 and 2-1, the Panthers and Bulldogs are not separated by much and Butler will do no worse than tie the first tiebreaker (head to head) with the Panthers.  At 4-0 and 1-2, Milwaukee puts the Bulldogs in a big hole to climb out of and keeps the pressure on Cleveland State to keep pace.  The Vikings play Youngstown State at 1 p.m. today.

'AAAAAAAAAAAAh'm frustrating to watch!'

The chance to go 4-0 with two of the hardest games of the Horizon League schedule behind them is a big deal for the Panthers.  But the Bulldogs, as always, will try and thwart Milwaukee’s plans.

Sometimes it just takes a simple event for a team to really get it.  Maybe it’s a discussion among team members about what they want their season to be.  Perhaps a coach makes an impassioned speech and the players respond.  It could be playing time; when someone isn’t clicking with the rest of the team, they might need to take a step back to really help themselves grow as well as the team.

For Butler, the game has really changed since Chrishawn Hopkins has seen his playing time dwindling.  It isn’t a knock on Hopkins; it’s just a fact that the Bulldogs are better on both sides of the floor when he is out of the game.  Following the Valparaiso loss, Hopkins’ playing time has dwindled considerably, and the Bulldogs have gotten better.  In his first eight games, Hopkins played over ten minutes in all but one game.  Since, he has played less than ten in four of six games.  In games where Hopkins plays less than five minutes, the Bulldogs are 3-0 against Stanford, Purdue and Green Bay.  If he plays more than five, the Dawgs are 4-7.

The Bulldogs are significantly better with this guy on the bench.

Beyond Hopkins, the Bulldogs are still up and down when shooting the ball.  Their shooting percentage hit a recent high of 46.4% against Stanford (they eclipsed that plateau in the opener against Evansville and against Oakland City), but they haven’t been shooting like the normal Butler team shoots.  Missing players like Zach Hahn, Shelvin Mack, and Matt Howard has done two things. First, taking away those good shooters automatically lowers your percentages.  Second, the void of those players, specifically Mack and Howard, means that defenses haven’t had to commit more than the normal attention to any one player, so while Chase Stigall had much more free reign to take open shots last season, he’s not getting those open shots because defenses aren’t sagging off him in an attempt to stop pros that have now cycled out of the program.

The Bulldogs rely heavily on Andrew Smith to be a playmaker, and they’ve gotten a mixed bag. Some games he’s flourished, like he’s done against Evansville, Chattanooga, and Oakland City.  Other times, he is a complete non-factor, as you can see in games like Valpo, Ball State and Gonzaga.  But usually, you’re going to get the same kind of stats he put up last year, because in a lot of ways he’s just a guy.  Thrust into the spotlight, he’s getting the same production he got when he was the fourth option offensively.

Someday he'll be a star, but Marshall hasn't the skill or defensive ability to lead quite yet.

A big disappointment, at least from my end because I loved watching him in the tournament last year, has been Khyle Marshall.  His production has been steady (9.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and he’s more efficient (55.2% FG, 33% 3PT, 55.7% eFG), but he hasn’t really taken the reigns like I expected out of him.  Marshall is a wonderful athlete with a great upside, but like any player with upside that means he still has a ways to go.  The sophomore still lacks the skills that will put him over the top in the future and make him an All-League candidate.  The other thing about Marshall is that he’s struggled to defend this season, which has put the Bulldogs in a tight spot.

Look for Milwaukee to take advantage of Butler’s weaker interior by taking it right at Smith.  If they can take the seven-footer out of the game, then they can really attack the inside and win the game that way.  Playing an inside-out game threatens their stiff defense and stretches them out; this is why it pays to have even your big forwards shooting the three-ball, but I suspect James Haarsma will get most of his points in the paint.

I don’t know who is going to be the X-Factor to help the Black and Gold win.  It could be anybody – Meier, Williams, Allen, Haarsma, Kelm, Richard, or Gulley – all have done it for the Panthers when others struggle.  That’s what makes this team so good. By having a bunch of players who can play very well on any given night, the Panthers are a very difficult team for which to prepare; it’s like seven different kinds of smoke.

Horizon League Power Rankings (12.12.11)

This is a big week for Horizon League teams in non-conference play.  Some games on the docket this week include #15 Wisconsin at Milwaukee, Cincinnati at Wright State and UIC at Oregon State. Cincinnati/Wright State is a very intriguing matchup due to Cincinnati’s major suspensions from their brawl at Xavier.  Wright State has a real chance to steal one at home.  Milwaukee also welcomes a major rival to their home floor as they take on Jordan Taylor and the Wisconsin Badgers.  They key to this game for the Panthers is to avoid going cold on offense, and that will be a huge task with tenacity the Badgers display on defense. Still, an upset against Wisconsin would be huge for Milwaukee’s confidence as they inch closer to conference play, and could move them up to the top of the Power Rankings.  See where they’re currently at, below…

In descending order…

Free Ben Averkamp.

10. Loyola (2-7) – Despite their most recent victory, the Ramblers are a one-man band that will struggle to win more than 2 league games this year.  Without Ben Averkamp’s monster game on Saturday, the Ramblers would have lost to a Toledo team that is one of the worst in the nation.  That tells you all you need to know about where they belong in this conference.

9. UIC (3-5) – A more balanced win, but over a similar opponent as Loyola. Northern Illinois is a really bad team as is evidenced by their 0-8 record.  Still, UIC managed to win, and they can earn a “moral victory” by keeping it close against Oregon State later this week.

8. Green Bay (4-6) – The Phoenix had a tough week, getting blown out by Wisconsin and Marquette. That was to be expected, but they’re not exactly upwardly mobile at this point.  Don’t expect them to move up this list much in the next couple weeks, as their only game in the next week and a half is against Michigan Tech.  At least they won’t have any bad losses, right?

7. Wright State (4-6) – A win over Miami (OH) isn’t what you would call a “good” win, but to beat an in-state rival is always a good win.  The interstate battle continues as the Raiders host Cincinnati and Ohio in the next week.  There’s a real opportunity here for the Raiders to move on up this list…

6. Butler (4-6) – Yet another 4-6 team, Butler has been a disappointment so far.  We knew they would struggle.  The question was, how much?  Losing to a decent Ball State team is not what the Bulldogs were hoping for to start off a 4-game road trip that includes games against Purdue, Gonzaga, and Stanford.  The Bulldogs could re-enter league play at 4-9 with their “signature” victory coming over Savannah State (seriously).  Not exactly the start Coach Stevens was hoping for.

Doug Anderson's athleticism has been on full display.

5. Detroit (5-7) – If the key to winning basketball games was getting exciting fast break dunks, the Titans would be in the Top 25. Led by high flying wing Doug Anderson, the Titans are starting to play a better brand of basketball, but the turnovers persist.  Ray McCallum and the crew take on #16 Mississippi State on Saturday.  Their chances of victory are greatly improved by Eli Holman’s controversial reinstatement.  If the offense goes through him, there are few teams on the schedule they can’t beat.

4. Youngstown State (6-3) – The Penguins lack an impressive victory, and a loss to Buffalo is nothing to be ashamed about. They’re on the right track, but they have a long way to go if they expect to stay in this spot. The teams directly behind them certainly won’t be complacent.

3. Valparaiso (7-3) – The Crusaders can get a nice win over visiting Oakland on Saturday, and they are just a small step behind in these Power Rankings.  They have a very good shot at winning their next 3 games which would give them a 10-3 record before their matchup against Milwaukee in conference play.  Go Valpo!

2. Milwaukee (8-2) – The Panthers suffered a tough loss at Northern Iowa, but the UNI Panthers are a really good, tournament caliber team.  The Panthers can bounce back with a HUGE game against the Wisconsin Badgers on Tuesday.  If they can shock Wisconsin, it would be one of the biggest regular season wins in Milwaukee’s history.

1. Cleveland State (10-1) – The Vikings continue to win in a variety of ways, but they’ve shown their vulnerability.  Ten wins is sweet, but the Vikings have a pretty weak non-conference slate in the next couple weeks, so improving their RPI is probably about as high as it’s going to be (#38) for the rest of the year. At this point, however, they have the best chance of any team in the conference at obtaining an at-large berth.